622
FXUS62 KGSP 211200
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
700 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS,
THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS AND NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED.
2. A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER WEATHER WITH VERY GUSTY NW WINDS,
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
3. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT INCREASES RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
STORMS, THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS AND NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS INDEED DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AS
OF DAYBREAK, COURTESY OF MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND A BROAD
PATCH OF MID-LEVEL DPVA. STILL EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO BE MODEST
DUE TO AN INITIALLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK
UPPER SUPPORT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN HERE
AND THERE. THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK
SOUTH OF I-20, BUT THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP KEEP THE
SFC-BASED CAPE SAFELY TO OUR SOUTH, THUS WE WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE
VERY LOW RISK. PRECIP AMTS SHOULD BE MODEST. AFTER SOMEWHAT OF
A LULL, A SFC WAVE WILL START TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL IMPROVE AGAIN. THE SFC WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BEGIN DEEPENING OVER
THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY, BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE FEB. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL SAT NIGHT,
BUT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS COLD
ADVECTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEPENING
COASTAL CYCLONE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER WEATHER WITH VERY GUSTY NW
WINDS, ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AFTER THE RAIN SHOWERS END SATURDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SYSTEM TREKS UP
FROM THE SOUTH AND BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE MOUNTAINS. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SPILLS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW
QUICKLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRAVERSES NORTHEAST.
THE LOW SWEEPS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH A BRIEF CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS EAST OF I-26 LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW CONTINUING NORTHEAST AND ON THE
BACKSIDE, BRINGING NW FLOW SNOW TO THE COUNTIES ALONG THE TN/NC
BORDER. GUIDANCE BRINGS SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3500 FEET. GIVEN THE STRONG NW WINDS AND COLDER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THESE COUNTIES AND THE NEED FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. GIVEN THE ELEVATION DEPENDENCY, IMPACTS TO
ROADWAYS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN AS ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY
CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. TIMING OF THIS STORM LOOKS TO
BE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, COLD TEMPERATURES AND VERY GUSTY NW WINDS COULD CREATE
SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH BELOW ZERO
VALUES AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE TROUGH DIPPING OVER THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT GUSTS GREATER THAN 45MPH ARE
POSSIBLE (50-60% CHANCE) SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE MOUNTAINS. AS FAR AS COLD
TEMPERATURES, GUIDANCE DEPICTS VALUES TOO WARM FOR A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY SO THIS PRODUCT IS LIKELY TO NOT BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT INCREASES RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.
GENERAL FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT BY MIDWEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE DRIER AIR LINGERS UNTIL MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNS, SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORMAL RANGE. BRIEF
RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, MAINLY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS IS AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL
COLD FRONT THAT MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO HINT AT. THE MODELS ALSO
START TO PICK UP ON ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING AND PUSHING
THROUGH WITH THE FROPA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DETAILS OF THIS
POTENTIAL NEXT SYSTEM ARE TOO VAGUE, BUT IF IT DEVELOPS, COULD
POTENTIALLY BRING NEEDED RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A WIDE BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN HAS INVADED
THE REGION IN THE PAST FEW HOURS, SO RAIN LOOKS TO BE A REALLY GOOD
BET, THOUGH RESTRICTIONS ARE MUCH LESS CERTAIN. A TEMPO GROUP WILL
BE USED AT MOST TERMINALS TO HANDLE THE ONGOING PRECIP FIRST THING
THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TO
OUR EAST BY 16Z OR SO. AFTER THE PRECIP MOVES EAST, THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT WE SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT THE LOWEST CLOUD DECK
AND WIND WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST, BUT AN MVFR RESTRICTION
LOOKS LIKELY. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTION DURING THE AFTERNOON,
BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD START TO MOVE IN SATURDY EVENING.
OUTLOOK: RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS RETURN SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT
KAVL WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/PM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page