402
FXUS62 KGSP 211820
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
120 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT FOR AVERY COUNTY AND THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF
MITCHELL COUNTY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR MOST
OF THE REMAINING NC COUNTIES BORDERING TN.
SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER HAVE INCREASED FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
WIND GUSTS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS AND NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
2. A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER WEATHER WITH VERY GUSTY NW WINDS,
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
3. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
4. TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH A COLD FRONT LIKELY BRINGING A BAND OF SHOWERS TO THE
AREA THURSDAY/THU NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS AND NO MAJOR IMPACTS
EXPECTED. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
A 500 MB TROUGH WILL DIG SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LOW AND DEEPENING
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE, A SFC LOW WILL BEGIN
TO FORM ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE INVOF EASTERN SC TONIGHT AND
RAPIDLY DEEPEN INTO A STRONG CYCLONE AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHEAST
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. BEFORE THE LOW GETS GOING, A QUICK
SHOT OF ISENT LIFT AND MID-LEVEL DPVA WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING IN BEING MOSTLY LIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED TS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWFA
AND QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST. THE ONE DIFFERENCE IS THAT NWLY
FLOW WILL PICK UP AND FORCE LINGERING SHOWERS WITH STRONG CAA IN
THE NC MOUNTAINS, PRODUCING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A QUICK 1-3" OF SNOW
ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THRU SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT THE VALLEYS WILL SEE MOST OF THE MOISTURE EXIT BEFORE
GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TO MID
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY INTO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER WEATHER WITH VERY GUSTY NW
WINDS, ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW REALLY RAMPS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY, AS A COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CAA WILL SUPPORT VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTN
AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PEAK GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SUNDAY
AFTN, BUT PEAK GUSTS INTO ADVISORY-CRITERIA RANGE OF 45-60 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500 FT HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING IN LATE IN THE 2ND PERIOD AND INTO 3RD
PERIOD, WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THRU ABOUT MIDDAY, BUT MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
AGAIN IN THE AFTN AND RAMP UP SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. SNOW
ACCUMS WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE EVENT DUE TO WARMER VALLEY TEMPS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BAND
OF RAIN DEVELOPING WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COASTAL LOW THAT COULD SET UP JUST EAST OF I-77. THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. OTHERWISE, SKIES
CLEAR OUT AND TEMPS RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL FOR HIGHS, MAINLY IN
THE 30 TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW MACHINE WILL BE CRANKING UP SUNDAY EVENING,
AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGS FROM THE CORN BELT SUNDAY
EVENING TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE,
THE DEPTH OF POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE COVERING THE TN VALLEY AND MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 700 MB...WITH
TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER COOLING TO -16 TO -20C. WHILE
THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER IS FORECAST TO BECOME GRADUALLY MORE
SHALLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE
MOIST LAYER REMAIN NO WARMER THAN -16 UNTIL TUE EVENING. THIS MEANS
A PROTRACTED PERIOD...30 HOURS OR MORE OF A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AND EFFICIENT SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS...ALL
WITHIN PERSISTENT STRONG NW UPSLOPE FLOW. SOLID WINTER WX ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SMOKIES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF THE OTHER NC
COUNTIES BORDERING TN. CURRENT FORECAST STORM TOTALS ARE GENERALLY
IN THE 1-4" RANGE IN THE VALLEYS NORTH OF I-40, WITH ABOUT TWICE
THAT RANGE EXPECTED ABOVE 3500 FEET. ESPECIALLY FAVORED UPSLOPE/HIGH
ELEVATION AREAS ALONG THE STATE LINE WILL LIKELY SEE AROUND A FOOT
OR MORE. THIS IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR AVERY COUNTY AS WELL AS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF MITCHELL
COUNTY, WHILE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR YANCEY,
MADISON, HAYWOOD, AND THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF SWAIN.
WITH VERY WINDY (LIKELY WIND ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS) AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS LIKELY ABOVE 4000 FEET
OR SO. CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL BE "VERY CLOSE, BUT NOT
QUITE" IN TERMS OF REACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT THAT ONE WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND/OR THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FINALLY STEADILY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT, WITH DRY AND COOLER-THAN-
NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL AGAIN BE LOW MON NIGHT, BUT WITH WINDS STEADILY
DIMINISHING, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT,
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 0.10-
0.25" RANGE. VERY GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NW ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING, AND CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
FOLLOWING 36 HOURS OR SO. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH, WITH GUSTS
OF 35 TO 50 MPH ARE FORECAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THIS
TIME, WITH 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED/GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. (UNLIKE THE MOUNTAINS, THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT WILL SEE THEIR WINDS DIMINISH A BIT SUNDAY
NIGHT.) WHILE MOUNTAIN RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 30% SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, AFTERNOON RH IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 25-30% ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE CRITICAL RH BELOW
25% IS LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST A PART OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RH RECOVERY SUN NIGHT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE NO BETTER THAN 50% IN
THESE AREAS. FIRE DANGER WILL THEREFORE BE ELEVATED, ALTHOUGH COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITING FACTOR.
KEY MESSAGE 4: TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A COLD FRONT LIKELY BRINGING A BAND OF SHOWERS TO
THE AREA THURSDAY/THU NIGHT.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY TUESDAY, WITH
LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS. A SERIES OF
FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVES TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MID-WEEK WILL RESULT IN
ESTABLISHMENT OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST BY MID-
WEEK, WITH RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A WARM SECTOR REGIME GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS BY WED, AND GENERALLY
REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT CYCLONE WILL DIG OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY BY THE END IF THE DAY. THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP INDICATED IN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE OF MORE-
THAN-ADEQUATE GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION, AND LIKELY
POPS APPEAR WARRANTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FROM THU AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST EVEN WEAK INSTABILITY
MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY (ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE SAID THAT THE GFS
HAS BEGUN TO TREND TOWARD SOME WEAK BUOYANCY BEING AVAILABLE) BUT IN
LIGHT OF THE EXPECTED WARM SECTOR REGIME...WE CANNOT AT THIS POINT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
FRONTAL BAND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: BAND OF PRECIP HAS LARGELY EXITED EAST OF
THE TAF SITES AS OF 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN, THEN CIGS LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TO AT LEAST MVFR, WITH A PERIOD OF IFR LIKELY
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER AROUND OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT EAST BY DAYBREAK. AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST, WNW TO NW WINDS WILL
RAMP UP AND BECOME GUSTY, WHILE LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. A BAND OF
PRECIP MAY DEVELOP AROUND BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF KCLT SUNDAY AFTN. AT THE VERY LEAST,
LOW-VFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER AROUND KCLT. ALSO AT KAVL,
MVFR-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY APPROACH UP THE VALLEY FROM THE NORTH. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY NW UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWER AT KAVL ON SUNDAY,
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT POSSIBLE
LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVL. QUIET WEATHER
RETURNS TO REGION BY TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ033-050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ048>052.
SC...NONE.
ARK/JDL
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