044
FXUS62 KGSP 221141
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
641 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXTEND THROUGH TUESDAY AS NEAR-CRITICAL RH IS
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER WEATHER WITH VERY GUSTY NW WINDS,
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TN BORDER,
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SNOW
WILL CAUSE MAINLY TRAVEL PROBLEMS ALONG THE TN BORDER.
2. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
3. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A BRIEF RETURN OF WINTER WEATHER WITH VERY GUSTY NW
WINDS, ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TN
BORDER, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
SNOW WILL CAUSE MAINLY TRAVEL PROBLEMS ALONG THE TN BORDER.
NW FLOW SIGNIFICANTLY RAMPS UP ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY, AS A
COASTAL LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL SUPPORT VERY
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO TONIGHT. PEAK GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK GUSTS
INTO ADVISORY-CRITERIA RANGE OF 45 TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500
FT HEADING INTO TONIGHT.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
MTNS LATER THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS RAMPING UP ALONG THE
NC/TN BORDER. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT FOR
THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE EVENT DUE TO WARMER VALLEY TEMPS. THERE
MAY ALSO BE A BAND OF RAIN DEVELOPING WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT COULD SET UP JUST EAST OF
I-77. ANY QPF FROM THIS WOULD BE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE, SKIES CLEAR
OUT AND TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
THE NW FLOW SNOW MACHINE WILL BE CRANKING UP THIS EVENING, AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGS FROM THE CORN BELT TO THE SC COAST
BY MONDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE, THE DEPTH OF POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE
COVERING THE TN VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 700 MB, WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF
THE MOIST LAYER COOLING TO -16 TO -20C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PROTRACTED PERIOD (AT LEAST 24 TO 30 HRS) OF OPTIMIZED DENDRITIC
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AND ABOVE-AVERAGE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS,
ALL WITHIN PERSISTENT NW UPSLOPE FLOW. SOLID WINTER WX ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SMOKIES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MTNS AND VALLEYS OF THE OTHER NC
COUNTIES BORDERING TN. CURRENT FCST STORM TOTALS ARE GENERALLY
IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE IN THE VALLEYS NORTH OF I-40, AND ABOUT
TWICE THAT RANGE EXPECTED ABOVE 3500 FEET. ESPECIALLY FAVORED
UPSLOPE/HIGH ELEVATION AREAS ALONG THE STATE LINE WILL LIKELY
SEE A FOOT OR MORE. THUS, A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
AVERY COUNTY AS WELL AS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF MITCHELL COUNTY. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR YANCEY, MADISON, HAYWOOD,
AND THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF SWAIN.
WITH VERY WINDY AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY NIGHT,
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NC MTNS, WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS LIKELY ABOVE ROUGHLY
4000 FEET. AT PRESENT, THOSE AREAS DON'T QUITE REACH COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT IF THEY TREND ANY COLDER AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND/OR THE NORTHERN NC MTNS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FINALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT, WITH DRY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE LOW AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH WINDS STEADILY
WEAKENING WIND CHILLS SHOULDN'T BE AS COLD AS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH MINIMAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. NEAR CRITICAL RH OF 25-30% IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS AS MUCH DRIER AIR MIXES IN FROM THE NW.
TUESDAY, EVEN LOWER RH OF UPPER TEENS TO 25% BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD. ADDITIONALLY, VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NW OF
25-35 MPH ON SUNDAY AND 20-30 MPH FOR MONDAY POSE ANOTHER CONCERN
FOR ANY BURNING. THOUGH HIGHER RH IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS,
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH ARE
FORECASTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF SOME NW FLOW SNOW AT THE
TN/NC BORDER, NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECASTED FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THOUGH THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER
REMAINS ELEVATED, COLDER TEMPERATURES COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
KEY MESSAGE 3: TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH A POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDWEEK, SUPPRESSING
RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES FLATTER
BEFORE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH DEVELOPS AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CONUS. MEANWHILE, GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND
EJECTING NORTHEAST, DRAGGING A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION, SURFACE WINDS TURN S/SW AND INCREASE MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME PUSHES A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS TIME, THE PROBABILITY OF
RECEIVING AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN IS 40-50%, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
WITH PROBS DECREASING ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE HAS A 15-20%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST 100 J/KG OF SBCAPE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, MEANING
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY BEING PRESENT TO
PRODUCE CONVECTIVE CONCERNS. HOWEVER, THIS IS VERY MUCH SUBJECT TO
CHANGE AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT AS HOW
THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES IS DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR THE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS OFF SHORE, THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, AND WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN REFERENCE TO
THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: THE LAST OF THE PRECIP WAS CURRENTLY MOVING
TO THE EAST OF KCLT, SO WHILE A LOW CLOUD CEILING RESTRICTION
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY, WE START OUT VFR WITH OVERCAST CLOUDS
AT 035 TO 040 AND IMPROVE FROM THERE. ONCE WE START TO SCATTER
OUT, DEEPER MIXING WILL BRING FREQUENT GUSTS DOWN TO THE SFC FROM
THE N TO NW. AT KAVL, THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WAS
OVERHEAD AND WILL BE AROUND FOR ANOTHER TWO HOURS UNTIL IT STARTS
TO MIX OUT IN MID/LATE MORNING. AFTER WE GET RID OF THOSE CLOUDS,
ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVL BEGINNING
LATE SUNDAY EVENING, WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BLOW UP THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND REACH THE TERMINAL AT SOME
POINT. THIS WILL BE HANDLED WITH A PROB30.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS
AND A FEW OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT KAVL. QUIET WEATHER RETURNS
TO REGION BY TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
NCZ033-050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
NCZ048>052.
SC...NONE.
CP/JPT/PM
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