917
FXUS62 KGSP 081110
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
710 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY NE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR FCST AREA. WITH INSTABILITY DIMINISHING, IT
IS UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE.
2. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND SC. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT APPEARS HIGHEST
GENERALLY OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
3. NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR TUE AND WED, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST FOR TUE.
4. A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LIKELY SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY NE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR FCST AREA. WITH INSTABILITY DIMINISHING, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT OUR EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
AND THRU THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERALL, RAIN RATES SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
A LACK OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION, MOUNTAIN POPS INCREASE
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WLY/UPSLOPE ALONG THE TN BORDER BY DAY-
BREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER THE PIEDMONT OF NC AND SC.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT APPEARS
HIGHEST GENERALLY OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EFFECTIVELY PUSH EAST OF THE MTNS THIS MORNING,
ENCOUNTERING AN AIRMASS THAT REMAINS FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS
SIMILAR TO THOSE YESTERDAY. LAPSE RATES PROBABLY WON'T BE QUITE AS
GOOD AS THOSE ON SATURDAY DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THUS,
SFC-BASED CAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. STRONGER FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ALOFT, WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD HELP PRODUCE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KT ACROSS
OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH STORM CELLS MAY BE WEAKER TODAY, THE STORMS WILL BE
MORE CAPABLE OF ORGANIZATION, PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN MORE WLY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
AS SUCH, SPC'S LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK OVER OUR
EASTERN I-85 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST. THEY MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, BUT BASED ON THE EXPECTED ENVIRON-
MENT, DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS A REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE OVER OR JUST SE OF OUR FCST AREA, RESULTING
IN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THRU THE MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3: NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR TUE AND WED,
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST FOR TUE.
A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ATOP THE CONUS
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, WITH QUASI-ZONAL...ALBEIT
STEADILY AMPLIFYING FLOW IN THE NORTHERN STREAM, AND AN UPPER
LOW OVER BAJA BEING THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE. AS A MID-
LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE, THE SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW WILL KICK OUT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TUE, WITH A
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING NEAR THE EAST COAST. AFTER A BRIEF DAY OF
SLIGHT DRYING AND EVEN SLIGHTER COOLING ON MONDAY, A DAMPENING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUE. MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A MODESTLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT (DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS) COULD YIELD A STRONG
STORM OR TWO. THE BIGGER STORY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE
RETURN OF NEAR-RECORD WARMTH BENEATH RISING HEIGHT AND DEVELOPING SW
FLOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS AT LEAST WITHIN THE BALLPARK OF DAILY
RECORDS AT THE THREE CLIMATE SITES ON TUE. COMPRESSIONAL EFFECTS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD EVEN WARMER
CONDITIONS ON WED, WHEN CURRENT MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO AT LEAST
TIE DAILY RECORDS AT ALL THREE SITES. RECORD WARM LOWS ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO BE SET TUE NIGHT AS CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY MUGGY.
KEY MESSAGE 4: A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LIKELY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
PHASING OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE COMPLETED BY WED NIGHT,
WHEN A SHARP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE MISS VALLEY. A
POTENTIALLY STRONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MARCH ACROSS
THE TN AND OH VALLEY LATE WED...AND BASED UPON A CONSENSUS OF THE
LATEST GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, WOULD MOST LIKELY IMPACT
OUR FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. WHILE THIS TIMING ISN'T
IDEAL FOR UNSTABLE CONDITIONS, STRONG GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODEST
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 60-70 KTS WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES. THE DEGREE OF ANY HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE STORM
THREAT MAY HINGE UPON HOW WELL-FORCED THE FRONTAL ZONE IS. TO
THAT END, A PATTERN EVOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC
GFS...WHICH DEPICTS A TRANSITION TO A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION...WOULD BE MOST CONDUCIVE TO A DEVELOPING
SEVERE STORM THREAT.
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR TUE AND FRI, BUT MAY NOT LAST LONG, AS A
WAVE TRAIN NEAR THE WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER QUICKLY FLATTENS
THE UPSTREAM FLOW PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
AS A CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: I HAVE A TEMPOS FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS UNTIL 14Z
FOR KCLT AND THE UPSTATE SITES WITH -SHRA AND LIFR CIGS INCLUDED IN
THE TEMPO FOR KAND. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER-
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE IS STILL
MORE LIKELY EAST OF THE MTNS, WITH PREVAILING -SHRA BEGINNING AROUND
17Z FOR MOST TERMINALS. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTN,
WITH PROB30S FOR -TSRA AT ALL TAF SITES FROM ROUGHLY 21 TO 02Z. WINDS
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN SW THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW-END
GUSTS DEVELOPING BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KAVL
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VRB THRU LATE MORNING. THEY WILL PICK UP MAR-
GINALLY FROM THE WNW/NW BY THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE NLY AND
WEAKEN AGAIN THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER CIGS AND PATCHY
FOG IS LIKELY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: THE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 03-09
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 80 1974 22 1932 57 1964 8 1996
KCLT 83 2009 30 1960 62 1925 16 1996
1974 1921
1925
KGSP 85 2009 29 1960 60 2009 16 1996
1921
RECORDS FOR 03-10
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1974 29 1932 58 1903 10 1996
1932
KCLT 82 1974 36 1924 59 1903 17 1932
KGSP 84 1974 39 1924 58 2009 17 1932
1997
RECORDS FOR 03-11
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 79 1967 29 1924 55 2016 14 1934
1925
KCLT 83 2015 37 1960 60 1986 22 1969
2009 1934
1990
KGSP 84 2009 34 1960 60 1986 17 1969
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/JPT
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