254
FXUS62 KGSP 081808
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
208 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWER SEVERE CHANCES THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THOUGH STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WIND
GUST TO NEAR 60 MPH.
NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES FOR MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
2. NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WHILE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
3. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
THUNDER AND SOME POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER RETURNS IN ITS WAKE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR LOOSELY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE JUST ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS OF EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON; LEE
TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NOW REPORTED
IN SOME AREAS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS, AND THE LOWER DEWPOINTS THERE MAY
BE REMNANTS OF THE COLD POOL FROM YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION. DEWPOINTS
ELSEWHERE REMAIN FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, SO THE SPRINGLIKE
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THUS, THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE AXIS REMAIN IN PLAY AS A POTENTIAL DRIVER OF CONVECTION.
THE PRECEDING MOIST SW'LY FLOW ALOFT HAS MAINTAINED LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR TODAY, BUT AT THIS POINT MAINLY AFFECTING
THE PIEDMONT. ABUNDANT HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AND
DOES APPEAR TO BE LIMITING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION; ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER ALSO SEEN ON ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM CLT. THUS IT IS STARTING
TO LOOK QUESTIONABLE WHETHER DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. VERTICAL
PROFILES DO LOOK MORE CONDUCIVE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF CLT. DPVA
SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES,
ALTHOUGH IT IS PROGGED TO DAMPEN WITH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TRACKING THRU THE NE CONUS AND CANADIAN MARITIMES. WINDS SHOULD
TURN MORE WESTERLY AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA, AND
CAMS DO GENERALLY AGREE ON CI EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
BY 21-22Z, WITH LOOSELY LINEAR ORGANIZATION OWING TO 25-35 KT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE RISK IS THE
EXPECTATION OF ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE BEING AVAILABLE,
BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION, DON'T WANT TO SAY THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE WINDS IS ZERO. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK UPDATE DID REMOVE
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR ALL BUT A SLIVER OF OUR AREA EAST OF I-77,
HOWEVER. LIKELY POPS PERSIST IN MOST AREAS FOR THE ONGOING LIGHT
PRECIP AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AFTER PASSING THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT,
LOSING SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO. WINDS WILL BE WEAK IN LOW LEVELS AND THE PROSPECT
OF SIGNIFICANT DRYING LOOKS UNLIKELY THRU DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS
PROBABLY WILL FORM ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY THE
LOWER PIEDMONT SE OF I-85. WITH HIGHER CLOUD DECKS DISSIPATING,
WHERE LOW STRATUS DOESN'T FORM IN THE PIEDMONT, DENSE FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY. ONCE THE MORNING FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES, WE SHOULD
SEE TEMPS REBOUND COMPARED TO SUNDAY, BACK 15+ ABOVE NORMAL,
BUT LOOKING TO FALL SHORT OF RECORDS AT THE CLIMATE SITES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WHILE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT BY MONDAY NIGHT, A LOW-AMPLITUDE Z500
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH AND WESTERN CAROLINAS, RESULTING IN ONSET OF
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER MAKING IT INTO THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT, IN WHICH CASE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING SOME 25-30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS IS CONDITIONALLY DEPENDENT ON MAINTAINING OUR INSTABILITY FAR
ENOUGH INTO THE NIGHT TO STILL SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION BY
THE TIME FORCING PEAKS OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE, IT'S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THIS
WILL HAPPEN.
RATHER, ATTENTION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK REMAINS ON
TEMPERATURES. AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN
IN PLACE BENEATH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS...STILL EXPECTED TO LAND IN OR ABOVE THE
99TH PERCENTILE OF TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS IN
THE LOW- TO MID-80S ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...WITH WARMER HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE ABSENCE OF MUCH/ANY RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD THUNDER AND SOME POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS IN ITS WAKE.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY, A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...RESULTING IN A DEEP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME NEUTRAL/NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY, AND WILL USHER IN A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING REMAINS UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. HAVING SAID THAT,
THE TREND IN THE LATEST LREF IS TO STEER THE PARENT LOW
FARTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN
MARGINALLY-BETTER LOW-LEVEL DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THUS
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENTIAL TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED INTO
THE NIGHT. LO-RES MODELS ARE STILL HESITANT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
MLCAPE INTO THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
INSTEAD DEPICTING A RIBBON OF DECENT INSTABILITY MAKING IT ALL
THE WAY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND WEST-CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND THEN LARGELY COLLAPSING AS IT ARRIVES IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
STILL, GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60KTS PER SOME OF THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE LREF MEMBERSHIP, WHATEVER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED
WILL OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RETURN TO WITH A CATEGORY
OF NORMAL, AND DRYING SHOULD SET IN. LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN, THOUGH, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, AND A GRADUAL RETURN
OF THE MOIST, MARITIME AIR MASS THAT HAS KEPT US MUGGY AND
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL THE LAST FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: ABUNDANT MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER AT FL080-120
EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN AT KCLT, KGSP, KGMU, KAND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS WEST
OF THE APPALACHIANS AT ISSUANCE TIME, BUT WILL MAKE SLIGHT PROGRESS
INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVIER
SHRA AND/OR TSRA TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS HANDLED WITH
TEMPOS IN THE 20-21Z SUN TO 00Z MON TIMEFRAME, EXCEPT AT KHKY WHERE
VCTS WAS MENTIONED INSTEAD. GUSTY TS WINDS POSSIBLE AND MENTIONED
AS VRB GROUP IN THE TEMPO AT KCLT. LIGHT SW WINDS THIS AFTN AND
EVENING (NW AT KAVL, IN LEE TROUGH ORIENTATION) BEFORE LARGELY
GOING CALM/VRB OVERNIGHT. FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THRU KAVL AND MAINTAIN
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS OVERNIGHT, BUT AT THE OTHER SITES,
IFR TO LIFR CIGS LIKELY BY DAYBREAK, AND PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. RESTRICTIONS DISSIPATE 13-15Z AND WINDS PICK UP
FROM THE SW THEREAFTER; PRECIP CHANCE NEAR ZERO MONDAY AFTN.
OUTLOOK: THE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING. ISOLATED TSRA COULD RETURN TUESDAY, WITH STRONGER TSRA
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. DRY AND BRIEFLY COOLER TO END THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 03-09
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 80 1974 22 1932 57 1964 8 1996
KCLT 83 2009 30 1960 62 1925 16 1996
1974 1921
1925
KGSP 85 2009 29 1960 60 2009 16 1996
1921
RECORDS FOR 03-10
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1974 29 1932 58 1903 10 1996
1932
KCLT 82 1974 36 1924 59 1903 17 1932
KGSP 84 1974 39 1924 58 2009 17 1932
1997
RECORDS FOR 03-11
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 79 1967 29 1924 55 2016 14 1934
1925
KCLT 83 2015 37 1960 60 1986 22 1969
2009 1934
1990
KGSP 84 2009 34 1960 60 1986 17 1969
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JCW/MPR
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