361
FXUS62 KGSP 082333
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
733 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS DENSE FOG IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY BUT
FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.
2. NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WHILE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
3. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
THUNDER AND SOME POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER RETURNS IN ITS WAKE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
BUT FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH
MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE WEAK
IN LOW LEVELS AND THE PROSPECT OF SIGNIFICANT DRYING LOOKS UNLIKELY
THROUGH DAYBREAK. THUS, STRATUS AND FOG ARE LIKELY TO FORM ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
UPSTATE AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING MORE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG IN THESE AREAS SO WILL MONITOR
TRENDS/OBS CLOSELY IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ENDS UP BEING
NEEDED. ONCE MORNING FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES, TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
ENDING UP 15+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, HIGHS SHOULD FALL SHORT
OF RECORDS AT THE CLIMATE SITES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WHILE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT BY MONDAY NIGHT, A LOW-AMPLITUDE Z500
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH AND WESTERN CAROLINAS, RESULTING IN ONSET OF
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER MAKING IT INTO THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT, IN WHICH CASE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING SOME 25-30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS IS CONDITIONALLY DEPENDENT ON MAINTAINING OUR INSTABILITY FAR
ENOUGH INTO THE NIGHT TO STILL SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION BY
THE TIME FORCING PEAKS OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN ONLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE, IT'S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THIS
WILL HAPPEN.
RATHER, ATTENTION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK REMAINS ON
TEMPERATURES. AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN
IN PLACE BENEATH A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS...STILL EXPECTED TO LAND IN OR ABOVE THE
99TH PERCENTILE OF TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS IN
THE LOW- TO MID-80S ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...WITH WARMER HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE ABSENCE OF MUCH/ANY RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD THUNDER AND SOME POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS IN ITS WAKE.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY, A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...RESULTING IN A DEEP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME NEUTRAL/NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY, AND WILL USHER IN A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING REMAINS UNFAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. HAVING SAID THAT,
THE TREND IN THE LATEST LREF IS TO STEER THE PARENT LOW
FARTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN
MARGINALLY-BETTER LOW-LEVEL DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THUS
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENTIAL TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED INTO
THE NIGHT. LO-RES MODELS ARE STILL HESITANT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
MLCAPE INTO THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
INSTEAD DEPICTING A RIBBON OF DECENT INSTABILITY MAKING IT ALL
THE WAY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND WEST-CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND THEN LARGELY COLLAPSING AS IT ARRIVES IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.
STILL, GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60KTS PER SOME OF THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE LREF MEMBERSHIP, WHATEVER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED
WILL OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RETURN TO WITH A CATEGORY
OF NORMAL, AND DRYING SHOULD SET IN. LOOKS LIKE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN, THOUGH, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, AND A GRADUAL RETURN
OF THE MOIST, MARITIME AIR MASS THAT HAS KEPT US MUGGY AND
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL THE LAST FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE 00Z
TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE WITH
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM ROUGHLY 05Z-10Z, LINGERING THROUGH ~13Z-
16Z. KCLT AND KHKY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE DENSE FOG (LIFR)
DEVELOP, WITH MAINLY PATCHY FOG (IFR) EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF
THE TERMINALS. CIGS SHOULD RANGE MOSTLY FROM MVFR TO IFR, ALTHOUGH
KHKY AND KCLT ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE LIFR CIGS DEVELOP. BECAUSE OF
THIS, KCLT AND KHKY WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS LINGER THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS, WHILE RESTRICTIONS ELSEWHERE SHOULD ONLY LINGER
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY BE NW
AT KAVL AND GENERALLY SW/WSW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS COULD GO
CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: THE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. ISOLATED
TSRA MAY RETURN TUESDAY, BUT BETTER TSRA CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS WELL. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 03-09
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 80 1974 22 1932 57 1964 8 1996
KCLT 83 2009 30 1960 62 1925 16 1996
1974 1921
1925
KGSP 85 2009 29 1960 60 2009 16 1996
1921
RECORDS FOR 03-10
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1974 29 1932 58 1903 10 1996
1932
KCLT 82 1974 36 1924 59 1903 17 1932
KGSP 84 1974 39 1924 58 2009 17 1932
1997
RECORDS FOR 03-11
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 79 1967 29 1924 55 2016 14 1934
1925
KCLT 83 2015 37 1960 60 1986 22 1969
2009 1934
1990
KGSP 84 2009 34 1960 60 1986 17 1969
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JCW/MPR
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