556
FXUS62 KGSP 091244
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
844 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPANDED TO SOME AREAS WEST OF I-26. OTHERWISE NO
MAJOR CHANGES THIS ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER THE NC PIEDMONT,
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, THE WESTERN UPSTATE, AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL-ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
2. NEAR-RECORD WARMTH RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
3. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS A LOW END SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THU AND FRI.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT, SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, THE WESTERN UPSTATE, AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL-ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER THE NC PIEDMONT,
WARRANTING ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG TOOK LONGER
TO LOCK IN NE GEORGIA AND IN AREAS WEST OF US 25 IN SC, BUT HAS
BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPANSION OF THE DFA TO THOSE
AREAS. NO HIGHER CLOUD DECKS ARE PRESENT, AND STRATUS LAYER IS
THIN OWING TO RIPPLED LOOK ON SATELLITE, BUT IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR
INSOLATION TO DO ITS THING. ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM FOR ALL
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA; POSSIBILITY IT WILL BE CANCELLED A BIT
EARLY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE UPSTATE FOR THE SAME PERIOD; VISIBILITY
THERE IS GENERALLY GREATER THAN 2 MILES SO OF MUCH LESSER IMPACT.
OTHERWISE, ONCE THE MORNING FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES, TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
ENDING UP 15+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NONETHELESS, THE HIGHS WILL
STILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF DAILY RECORDS AT OUR CLIMATE SITES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEAR-RECORD WARMTH RETURNS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
A SPLIT UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ATOP THE COUNTRY THROUGH
MID-WEEK, WITH AMPLIFICATION OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IN
RESPONSE TO NORTHWESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW KICKING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO TEXAS. FOR TUESDAY, LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING
FROM THE GULF WILL ENSURE ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS SUPPORTING AT
LEAST MODEST LEVELS OF INSTABILITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A STORM OR TWO MAY BE ONGOING TUE MORNING, AS A DAMPENING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION WITHIN BROADER AREA OF HEIGHT
RISES. THIS FEATURE WILL PASS EAST OF OUR AREA BY AFTERNOON, BUT
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS WON'T BE ESPECIALLY CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED
CONVECTION GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED INSTABILITY, BUT A STRAY
SEVERE STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
THE BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF
RECORD, OR AT LEAST NEAR-RECORD WARMTH, AS HEIGHTS RISE AND A MUGGY
WARM SECTOR REGIME BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. THE CURRENT MAX TEMP
FORECAST FOR TUE IS JUST A DEGREE SHY OF DAILY RECORDS AT KCLT AND
KGSP, AND WOULD BREAK THE RECORD AT KAVL BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. FOR
WED, THE CURRENT FORECAST EXCEEDS DAILY RECORDS AT KCLT AND KAVL,
AND IS WITHIN A DEGREE OF THE RECORD AT KGSP. RECORD WARM MIN TEMPS
ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE BROKEN TUE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS A LOW END
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THU AND FRI.
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WED NIGHT, AS A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS EXPECTED
OVER THE EAST ON THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z THURSDAY,
WARRANTING LIKELY-TO-CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM
LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. STRONG MOISTURE FLUX WILL
BE IN PLACE OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, WHICH COMBINED
WITH WARM/WELL-MIXED CONDITIONS COULD MAINTAIN A RIBBON OF WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A NARROW ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT, WHICH COULD INTERACT WITH THE
WEAK INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A LOW-TOPPED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM. LIMITING FACTORS FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM THREAT ARE
DUE TO THE DELAYED PHASING OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...WHICH MAY
NOT BE COMPLETED UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH IS EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS RESULTS IN FORCING NOT BEING AS DEEP AND STRONG AS ONE
WOULD USUALLY LIKE TO SEE FOR LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. ADDITIONALLY,
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VEERED AND LARGE UNIDIRECTIONAL...RESULTING
IN 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KTS...STRONG, BUT NOT THE 35+ KTS
THAT WE TYPICALLY NEED FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A MARGINAL THREAT
IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE SITUATIONS. NEVERTHELESS, THE FORECAST PATTERN
AND INGREDIENTS WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR A LOW-END THREAT.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS THURSDAY, AND THE HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A TRANSITION
TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE THE PRECIP
ENDS...AND EVEN SOME LIGHT ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500 FEET OR
SO. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO LEVELS MORE SANE FOR LATE WINTER
THU-FRI, BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AND
HEIGHT RISE OVER THE REGION...DOWNSTREAM OF MORE WESTERN CONUS
HEIGHT FALLS. AS A RESULT, TEMPS QUICKLY TO WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS THRU MOST OF
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THIS MORNING. A HANDFUL OF TERMINALS ARE STILL REPORTING 1/4 SM
AND FG, WITH OTHERS REPORTING ANYWHERE FROM MVFR TO IFR. THESE
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THRU MOST OF THE MORNING AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
DAYTIME HEATING TO HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT. EXPECT ALL SITES
TO RETURN TO VFR BY 14 TO 15Z. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TO CALM WELL INTO THE MORNING. OUTSIDE THE MTNS, THEY WILL PICK
UP FROM THE WSW/SW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KTS. AT KAVL, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND GENERALLY
FAVOR A NWLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A PROB30 FOR -SHRA WAS
INCLUDED AT KCLT AND THE UPSTATE TERMINALS FOR TUESDAY MORNING/
AFTERNOON FOR THE SHOWER CHANCE.
OUTLOOK: THE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LINGER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
ISOLATED TSRA MAY RETURN TUES WITH BETTER TSRA CHANCES EXPECTED
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED INTO
THURS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THURS
INTO FRI.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 03-09
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 80 1974 22 1932 57 1964 8 1996
KCLT 83 2009 30 1960 62 1925 16 1996
1974 1921
1925
KGSP 85 2009 29 1960 60 2009 16 1996
1921
RECORDS FOR 03-10
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1974 29 1932 58 1903 10 1996
1932
KCLT 82 1974 36 1924 59 1903 17 1932
KGSP 84 1974 39 1924 58 2009 17 1932
1997
RECORDS FOR 03-11
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 79 1967 29 1924 55 2016 14 1934
1925
KCLT 83 2015 37 1960 60 1986 22 1969
2009 1934
1990
KGSP 84 2009 34 1960 60 1986 17 1969
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-
018-026-028-029.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ010-011-
101-102-104-105.
JCW/JDL/JPT
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