596
FXUS62 KGSP 100749
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY TO OUR WEST, AND POPS
HAVE BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERED IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. NEAR-RECORD WARMTH
RETURNS TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH WED.
2. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, EMBEDDED THUNDER, AND A VERY
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
3. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
FROM AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. NEAR-RECORD WARMTH
RETURNS TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH WED.
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO
GEORGIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS IT HAS MOVED INTO A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER/MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK, WITH HEIGHTS RISING IN ITS WAKE...DOWNSTREAM OF LARGE
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS INFILTRATING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. A
BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. AS A
RESULT, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDDLE TN E
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO OUR
WESTERN AREAS BY DAYBREAK...WITH POPS INCREASING TO 30-50% ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 25...WITH EVEN A SLIVER OF
LIKELIES ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING,
WITH NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUD SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASING ON
INTENSIFYING SW FLOW, MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED, WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
THE COMBO OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR (~30 KTS IN THE 0-6KM
LAYER) SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE STORM THREAT. WARM FRONTAL
ACTIVATION OCCURS TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEY ALLEY AS A
CYCLONE MOVES FROM THE CORN BELT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS COULD BRUSH FAR WESTERN NC...WITH 20-30 POPS ADVERTISED
ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES.
UNDER RISING HEIGHT AND MATURING SW FLOW, VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SMASHES THE DAILY RECORD OF 76 AT
KAVL, TIES THE RECORD OF 82 AT KCLT, AND FALLS JUST SHY OF THE 84
RECORD AT KGSP. THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST EXCEEDS RECORD WARM MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT, AND AT LEAST TIES DAILY MAX TEMP RECORDS FOR WED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, EMBEDDED THUNDER,
AND A VERY LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. COOLER AND DRIER CON-
DITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A REMNANT CUTOFF LOW OVER WESTERN TEXAS
WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF EXTENDING
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE. THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN
OPENING UP TO THE MEAN FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY, RESULTING IN
AN ELONGATED TROF AXIS SPANNING THE ENTIRE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND PROGGED TO ARRIVE IN THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SFC, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL FOLLOW THE TROF
AXIS NE FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND THRU LATE WED
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR FCST AREA
FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION/APPROACH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERALL, IT'S STILL LOOKING LIKE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED FOR OUR FCST AREA. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
AT BEST WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THRU THURSDAY MORNING AND WHEN THE
DEEPER SYNOPTIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO PEAK. BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06
AND 12Z THURSDAY THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A NARROW BAND OF
UP TO ABOUT 100 J/KG SFC-BASED CAPE MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE NC PIEDMONT/SC UPSTATE, PAIRED WITH ROUGHLY 50 TO
65 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE ANY STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP. THUS, A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP, AND THOSE
THAT DO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
ROBUST, POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL SPREAD OVER OUR FCST AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DEPARTS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PRO-
VIDE A NARROW WINDOW THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE MTNS AS WELL AS LIGHT NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
AND RIDGES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
A WEAK/DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
HOWEVER THE ONLY NOTABLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WX WILL LIKELY
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS, MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS, WE
CAN EXPECT TO REMAIN UNDER WEAK SLY RETURN FLOW THRU THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF AT LEAST LOW-END POP BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NC MTNS, AND A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL PERSIST THRU DAY 7. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AS WELL. OPERATIONAL MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE LOWER
MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY THE ALLEGHENEYS BY SUNDAY NIGHT, DRIVING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA INTO MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON ITS
TIMING AND THE AVAILABILITY OF DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AT
PRESENT, IT'S STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THE SYSTEM'S SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. AN AREA OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER GEORGIA
WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT THROUGH THE MORNING. FEW/SCT CUMULUS IN
THE 045-060 RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WARRANTING PROB30S FOR SHRA AT MOST TERMINALS. TS MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THOSE PROBS IN LATER UPDATES, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE ISOLATED AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AT MOST SITES DURING LATE MORNING. SOME
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE
PIEDMONT SITES.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 03-10
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1974 29 1932 58 1903 10 1996
1932
KCLT 82 1974 36 1924 59 1903 17 1932
KGSP 84 1974 39 1924 58 2009 17 1932
1997
RECORDS FOR 03-11
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 79 1967 29 1924 55 2016 14 1934
1925
KCLT 83 2015 37 1960 60 1986 22 1969
2009 1934
1990
KGSP 84 2009 34 1960 60 1986 17 1969
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/JPT
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