969
FXUS62 KGSP 110650
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP EVENT ACROSS
THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS THURSDAY MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE
TRENDING COLDER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY.
2. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A VERY
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A WINTRY
MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
3. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND LINGER THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
4. COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TODAY.
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST THIS MORNING, WITH DEEP SW FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS
OUR AREA DOWNSTREAM OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EAST OF
THE MISS VALLEY. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
FRONTAL ZONE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF VERY WARM CONDITIONS,
WITH RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST TIED AT THE THREE
MAJOR CLIMATE SITE...WITH MOSTLY MID-80S ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, AND AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GUSTY SW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN UNSHELTERED AREAS, WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS, AND 30 TO
40 MPH ACROSS EXPOSED HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES. THE VERY WARM AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...ALBEIT WITH
SOME WEAKENING OF THE WINDS, AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A
VERY LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A WINTRY
MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A WELL-FORCED COLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS EARLY AS LATE WED EVENING, WITH SAID
FORCING INTERACTING WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK INSTABILITY
(250-500 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE) TO SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH THU MORNING. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
WITHIN THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION OF AROUND 70 KTS WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES, WITH BOUNDARY-PARALLEL
SHEAR SUPPORTING LOW-TOPPED LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS. AGAIN,
BOUNDARY-PARALLEL LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDE OF
AROUND 25 KTS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE CONVECTION,
BUT ARE NEVERTHELESS ADEQUATE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST OR
TWO...AND AN ISOLATED, WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE,
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU,
WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 0.25-0.5"
RANGE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A BIT OF AN ANAFRONT CHARACTER,
AND INDEED STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS THU MORNING BEFORE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE PROGRESS EAST.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF WINTRY MIX, MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY...MAINLY ABOVE 4000 FEET ACROSS THE BALSAMS, SMOKIES AND
VICINITY. AND ABOVE 3000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AT THIS
TIME, CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS LOW, BUT
THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR ONE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE THU
MORNING, AND MAX TEMPS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN
MOST LOCATIONS...ACTUALLY 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND LINGER THRU SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FROPA THURSDAY
MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, ROBUST CAA WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ROUGHLY 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS EARLY FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 30S
ACROSS THE AREA AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MTNS.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THRU SATURDAY AS A TRANSIENT SFC HIGH
QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLY/SWLY RETURN FLOW TO PICK
BACK UP OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING CONSIDERABLY OVER
THE MTNS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FRIDAY, WITH AN UPTICK IN WIND GUSTS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MTNS), THE MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR AREA. ON SATURDAY, WARM FRONTAL
ACTIVATION WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WARMING AS WEAK SWLY LOW-LVL
FLOW PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN POPS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. RAPID CYCLO-
GENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST AND THEN OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE THRU
EARLY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE AMPLE UPPER LVL SUPPORT/
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, A LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER OUR
AREA WHEN IT PUSHES THRU COULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY STRONG
AND/OR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MATERIALIZE. AT PRESENT, MOST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IT MOVING THRU EARLY MONDAY, WHICH WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. WE CAN EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU
AND IN ITS WAKE.
KEY MESSAGE 4: COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY, ANOTHER COLD SNAP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD/DEEP UPPER TROFING
WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, ROBUST SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE SE FROM
CANADA AND SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL CREATE
DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WELL-BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FROM MONDAY
EVENING THRU AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS EVENING, WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIMITED TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS, AS SW WINDS OF 5-10
KTS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AND BECOME GUSTY BY
LATE MORNING. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SHELTERING EFFECTS LIMITING THE
GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KAVL. WINDS WILL RELENT SOMEWHAT DURING THE
EVENING, BUT GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT MOST
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT, AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS TO KAVL
LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT MOST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK: RAIN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED ISOLATED TS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS TURN TO THE NW AND AND REMAIN
GUSTY THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 03-11
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 79 1967 29 1924 55 2016 14 1934
1925
KCLT 83 2015 37 1960 60 1986 22 1969
2009 1934
1990
KGSP 84 2009 34 1960 60 1986 17 1969
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/JPT
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