772
FXUS62 KGSP 120656
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS
INCREASED SOMEWHAT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG GRADIENT WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING, MAINLY
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND HAS SLOWED
SOMEWHAT. IT IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE THRU OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY STRONG GRADIENT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, PRODUCING LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
2. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE NC/TN BORDER ON MONDAY.
3. MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MOST AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
THIS MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY STRONG GRADIENT WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, PRODUCING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ATOP THE
CONUS, WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE MISS VALLEY...ONE IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR OUR AREA, A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE OVER LOUISIANA. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING, COINCIDENT WITH A PROCESS OF PHASING OF THE TWO
STREAMS...WHICH WILL BE COMPLETED EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATER
TODAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS...A STRONG COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, ATTENDANT
WITH A BROAD FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIP...THE BULK OF WHICH IS TO BE
FOUND ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE STEADILY EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...LIKELY ACCELERATING A BIT
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH THE PHASING
OF THE PATTERN.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...STRONG-TO-SEVERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WHERE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CLOSER TO HOME...THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY TO BE FOUND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT LOWER 60S
DEWPOINTS ARE NOT TOO FAR UPSTREAM, AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD DESTABILIZE THESE AREAS TO THE TUNE OF 200-
400 J/KG OF SBCAPE. ONE SOMEWHAT RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTION OF MESO-LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE UPSTATE BETWEEN 5 AM AND 9
AM...WHICH COULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF 0-1KM SHEAR
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS WHILE ALSO PRODUCING VERY FOCUSED LOW
LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. THIS IS CREATING
SOME CONCERN THAT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO OR TWO BEING IN
PLAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE NNW WITHIN 1-2 HOURS OF PRECIP
ONSET, WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY STRONG GRADIENT
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS MORNING, WHICH
COULD YIELD A PERIOD OF 40-50 MPH GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
FROPA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST DOWNWIND OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SINCE
THIS PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF (WITH MAINLY
25-35 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON), WE'RE
NOT PLANNING ON ON WIND HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT. WITH THE SURGE
OF STRONG CAA, SNOW LEVELS WILL PLUMMET ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM
AROUND SUNRISE ONWARD...WITH COLD AIR LIKELY INTERACTING WITH THE
BACK EDGE OF THE FORCING/MOISTURE FOR 2-3 HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS AT
LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES...MAINLY
ABOVE 3000.' UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT COULD YIELD AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES
IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE STATE LINE.
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 25-30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT
TWO WEEKS, WITH MINS IN THE LOWER-TO-MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE NC/TN BORDER ON MONDAY.
COOL AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LOWERING TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE WEEKS. TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL CERTAINLY BE NOTICEABLE.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.
IN ADDITION, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ACROSS OUR
LOWER TERRAIN. ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ROUGHLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE AND SLY
RETURN-FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY, LIFTING
A WARM FRONT OVER OUR AREA. THIS FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AS SOME AMOUNT OF SFC-BASED CAPE WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO OUR FCST AREA MONDAY MORNING AND EXIT
TO THE EAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SOME AMOUNT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT A NON-ZERO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT, ESPECIALLY OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES, BUT IF THE TIMING OF THE FROPA CHANGES, SO WILL ANY
SEVERE THREAT. QPF IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME. WE CAN
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
STRONGER GUSTS ON MONDAY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE MTNS WELL INTO TUESDAY. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500 FT ALONG THE TN BORDER
BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF MONDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROFING WILL DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
MONDAY, SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY, AND LINGER THRU
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW BROAD CANADIAN
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER OUR REGION AND LINGER THRU MID-
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY TUES
MORNING, WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUES AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE GROWING SEASON USUALLY DOES NOT BEGIN THIS EARLY, THE
RECENT WARM WEATHER IS LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME TENDER VEGETATION
BLOOMING, WHICH MAY BE VULNERABLE TO THIS COLD SNAP. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM WED AND THURS, BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-
MARCH.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, REDUCED VISBY,
AND LOWERING CIGS WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE TERMINAL FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 09-12Z. CATEGORICAL SHRA ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS W/
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED MOSTLY BETWEEN 10-16Z. AN ABRUPT
WIND SHIFT TO NNW IS EXPECTED WITHIN 1-2 HOURS AFTER PRECIP BEGINS,
WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KTS. A BRIEF WINDS OF A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF 30-40 KTS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY AT
KAVL. ISOLATED TSRA ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. FOR THE
TIME BEING, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR A TAF
INCLUSION, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY EVALUATED, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY AT KAVL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/JPT
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