716
FXUS62 KGSP 121050
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY STRONG GRADIENT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, PRODUCING LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
2. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE NC/TN BORDER ON MONDAY.
3. MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MOST AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
THIS MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY STRONG GRADIENT WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, PRODUCING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ATOP THE
CONUS, WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE MISS VALLEY...ONE IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR OUR AREA, A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE MORNING, COINCIDENT WITH A PROCESS OF
PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS...WHICH WILL BE COMPLETED EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS...A
STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA NORTHEAST
ALONG ROUGHLY THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT, ATTENDANT WITH A BROAD
FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIP...THE BULK OF WHICH IS TO BE FOUND ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
STEADILY EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...LIKELY ACCELERATING A BIT AS THE
FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH THE PHASING OF THE PATTERN.
AT THE SURFACE, LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVERTED INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND THIS HAS DESTABILIZED THESE
AREAS TO THE TUNE OF 200- 400 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS. MESOANALYSIS ALSO DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT OF A MESO-LOW
ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND ATTENDANT INCREASE
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WHICH LIKELY EXPLAINS THE RECENT
INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION IN THE GREENVILLE AREA. THE THREAT
FOR STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS THEREFORE APPEARS TO BE RAMPING UP,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS A
BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO OR TWO BEING IN PLAY, MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE I-85 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE NNW WITHIN 1-2 HOURS OF PRECIP
ONSET, WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY STRONG
GRADIENT ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS MORNING,
WHICH COULD YIELD A PERIOD OF 40-50 MPH GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO AFTER FROPA...MAINLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. SINCE THIS PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF (WITH MAINLY 25-35 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON), WE'RE NOT PLANNING ON ON WIND HEADLINES AT THE
MOMENT. WITH THE SURGE OF STRONG CAA, SNOW LEVELS WILL PLUMMET
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM AROUND SUNRISE ONWARD...WITH COLD AIR
LIKELY INTERACTING WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE FORCING/MOISTURE FOR
2-3 HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MOSTLY SNOW OR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS AT LEAST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANYWHERE
FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES...MAINLY ABOVE 3000.' UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
COULD YIELD AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE STATE LINE.
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 25-30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT
TWO WEEKS, WITH MINS IN THE LOWER-TO-MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE NC/TN BORDER ON MONDAY.
COOL AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LOWERING TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE WEEKS. TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL CERTAINLY BE NOTICEABLE.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.
IN ADDITION, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ACROSS OUR
LOWER TERRAIN. ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ROUGHLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE AND SLY
RETURN-FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY, LIFTING
A WARM FRONT OVER OUR AREA. THIS FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AS SOME AMOUNT OF SFC-BASED CAPE WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO OUR FCST AREA MONDAY MORNING AND EXIT
TO THE EAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SOME AMOUNT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT A NON-ZERO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT, ESPECIALLY OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES, BUT IF THE TIMING OF THE FROPA CHANGES, SO WILL ANY
SEVERE THREAT. QPF IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME. WE CAN
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NC MTNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
STRONGER GUSTS ON MONDAY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE MTNS WELL INTO TUESDAY. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500 FT ALONG THE TN BORDER
BEFORE THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF MONDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROFING WILL DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
MONDAY, SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY, AND LINGER THRU
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW BROAD CANADIAN
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER OUR REGION AND LINGER THRU MID-
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY TUES
MORNING, WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUES AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE GROWING SEASON USUALLY DOES NOT BEGIN THIS EARLY, THE
RECENT WARM WEATHER IS LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME TENDER VEGETATION
BLOOMING, WHICH MAY BE VULNERABLE TO THIS COLD SNAP. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM WED AND THURS, BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-
MARCH.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS W/EMBEDDED TS, REDUCED
VISBY, AND LOWERING CIGS ARE QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CATEGORICAL SHRA ALONG WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS W/ TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO END FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF REDUCED VISBY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM SW
TO NNW IS EXPECTED WITHIN AN HOUR AFTER PRECIP BEGINS, WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KTS AT MOST SITES. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER
AT KAVL...WITH GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE 30-35 KTS RANGE...MAY EVEN SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS OVER 35 KTS THERE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
EARLY THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED TS HAS DEVELOPED OVER UPSTATE
SC...AND AMENDMENTS WERE RECENTLY MADE TO INCLUDE VCTS AT THOSE
TERMINALS. TS IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AT KCLT, BUT WILL
LEAVE THIS OUT FOR THE TIME BEING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AT ALL SITES AFTER SUNSET...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL RETURN OUT OF THE SW FRI
MORNING, WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL/JPT
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