331
FXUS62 KGSP 132332
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
732 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE NEW 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
2. A STRONG COLD FRONT INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. POSSIBLE HAZARDS INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
3. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE NC/TN BORDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.
4. LINGERING GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY, BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE AREA AND DROPPING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
LACKLUSTER FORECAST CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS A NEBULOUS UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE; GUSTS HAVE MOSTLY TAPERED OFF FOR THE
EVENING, THOUGH A FEW SITES ARE STILL REPORTING GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.
EXPECT THESE TO LARGELY DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET GIVING WAY TO A CALM,
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S. A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
IN THE LOW-LEVELS BY SATURDAY MORNING, STEADILY MOISTENING THROUGHOU
THE DAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT MIXING, SO RH IS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30-35% RANGE. THE POINT OF LOWEST RH MAY
TAKE PLACE A LITTLE BEFORE PEAK HEATING, OWING TO MOIST ADVECTION
IN THE LOW-LEVELS OFFSETTING DEWPOINT MIXING DURING THE HOTTEST
PART OF THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. POSSIBLE HAZARDS INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER, A STOUT TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE
AREA, RETURNING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
EJECTING NORTHEAST AND DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, PRE-FRONTAL
ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR, INCREASING POP CHANCES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE SHOWERY THAN
CONVECTIVE AS GUIDANCE DOESN'T HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY
ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP ACROSS THE
AREA, INCREASING GUSTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THOUGH 15-25 MPH
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PROVIDES BETTER LIFT OF
PARCELS, THE SEVERE THREAT INCREASES. AT OF THIS FORECAST, THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS,
MEANING THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING. SINCE THE
FRONT IS LOOKING TO CROSS INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS,
THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR BETTER INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A 40-50% CHANCE OF SBCAPE
OF 500 J/KG OR HIGHER, WITH THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE NC PIEDMONT
AND PORTIONS OF SC HIGHLIGHTED. THIS LINES UP WITH THE CURRENT DAY 4
OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, SHEAR WITH
THIS SYSTEM ALSO PACKS 50-60KTS AT THE 850MB LEVEL AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. SO, FOR THE TIME BEING AT THIS CURRENT
FORECAST, ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE. AS FOR ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL,
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF 200-250 SRH DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON PERIOD ON MONDAY. WHAT THIS INDICATES IS THE ENVIRONMENT
IS SUPPORTIVE OF SPINNING UP THE LOWER LEVELS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE.
THE FORECAST STILL REMAINS A FEW DAYS OUT AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO THIS FORECAST IS GOING TO BE THE TIMING.
AGAIN, IF THIS SYSTEM COMES THROUGH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS,
ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON, THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. IF THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP AND CROSSES THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, THIS CAN LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
TO THE STORM AND DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE HAZARDS. GENERALLY,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY SEVERE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EITHER WAY,
SEVERE WEATHER SEASON IS HERE AND NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO MAKE SURE
YOU KNOW WHERE TO SEEK SHELTER FROM A STORM AND HAVE YOUR EMERGENCY
KIT IN THAT SAFE PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY, NW FLOW SNOW CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NC/TN
BORDER. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT OF LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT AS USUAL, DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN. THIS DIRECTLY IMPACTS THE AMOUNTS. FOR NOW, THE
CHANCES FOR RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW IS 15-20%. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE STRONG CAA EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THIS TYPICAL
SITUATION, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOULD REMAIN WELL UNDER ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA AND TAPER OFF EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 4: LINGERING GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY, BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE AREA AND
DROPPING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF
CONVECTION, BUT BEHIND THE FRONT, GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS ELEVATED WITH
THE STRONG CAA MOVING IN. CURRENT MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND
TOWARD KEEPING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS,
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE STRONG TROUGH
LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE WIND GUSTS POST-FRONTAL,
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE (80-90%) OF GUSTS OVER 45MPH AT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, THE CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE TO
30-50% OF GUSTS OVER 45MPH, WHICH WOULD REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. GIVEN THE TIGHT 850MB GRADIENT OF THE EXITING TROUGH,
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE NEED OF A PRODUCT ISSUANCE, BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM AS GUIDANCE
CHANGES.
ADDITIONALLY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR OVERNIGHT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME, THE CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS OF AT LEAST 32 DEGREES
IS 90%-95% ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPANDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN ON
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FREEZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AS ELSEWHERE CHANCES DECREASE INTO
THE 40-50% RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONTINUES FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
GUSTS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF WITH THE SUN PREPARING
TO SET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
AFTER DAYBREAK, EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SSE BY LATE MORNING...AND A
STEADY 5-8KT WIND TO PREVAIL THROUGH AFTERNOON. FEW/SKC EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS BY SUNDAY EVENING, CONTINUING INTO MONDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/MPR/TW
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