618
FNUS72 KGSP 160120
FWSGSP
SPOT FORECAST FOR AT SAR...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
920 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2200 EDT ON MARCH 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SMOKIES WILL DEVOLVE RAPIDLY OVER
THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THERE'S A POWERFUL LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE,
AND THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG ACROSS TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT AND ARRIVE IN THE
SMOKY MOUNTAINS BY DAWN MONDAY, IF NOT AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE. THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL FEATURE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS (TO THE TUNE OF 60KTS OR MORE
IN HIGHLY ISOLATED LOCATIONS, WHICH IS NOT CAPTURED IN THE TABULAR OUTPUT
BELOW), FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EVEN
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO, BUT ** THIS IS HIGHLY
UNLIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE SMOKIES **.
THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE SMOKIES BY MID-MORNING, AND IN
ITS WAKE A STRONG NW WIND WILL DEVELOP, FEATURING GUSTS OF 40-45KTS. DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE WILL DROP
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY MID-AFTERNOON. SNOW
FLURRIES WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ONCE THE TEMPERATURE FALLS BELOW FREEZING, AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER
MAY SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS, CALL THE OFFICE AND A METEOROLOGIST WILL ASSIST YOU.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG LATE
IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
SURFACE WINDS (MPH).WINDY. SOUTH WINDS 29 TO 36 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 53
MPH INCREASING TO 55 MPH OVERNIGHT.
CEILING (FT)........300 INCREASING TO 400 LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN
INCREASING TO 500 OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 3500
OVERNIGHT DECREASING TO 400 DECREASING TO 300
AFTER 3 AM.
VISIBILITY (SM).....5.
TIME (EDT) 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........88 92 87 81 84 74 79 85
WEATHER COV.....PTY SCH SCH CHC SCH CHC CHC LKY
WEATHER TYPE....FOG RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 30 20 30 30 70
CHC OF THDR (%).0 10 10 10 10 10 20 30
TEMP............51 53 55 58 60 62 58 59
RH..............89 82 78 72 67 65 70 67
APARNT TMP (F)..51 53 55 58 60 62 58 59
SURFACE WND DIR.S S S S S S S S
SURFACE WND SPD.29 30 31 32 33 35 36 35
SURFACE WND GST.45 47 49 53 55 55 54 55
CEILING (HFT)...3.0 4.0 5.0 45 35 4.0 3.0 3.0
VISIBILITY (SM).6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY, CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
SURFACE WINDS (MPH).WINDY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 33 MPH SHIFTING TO
THE WEST 23 TO 29 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
UP TO 53 MPH.
CEILING (FT)........300 DECREASING TO 200 EARLY IN THE MORNING,
INCREASING TO 600 INCREASING TO 1100 LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY (SM).....3 DECREASING TO 2.63 EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 3 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 5 LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........92 98 96 93 95 92 95 91 93 88 88 82
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RS SW SW SW SW SW
TSTM COV........CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC SCH CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).90 100 90 90 50 30 50 50 60 50 40 40
CHC OF THDR (%).40 60 70 60 30 20 40 40 10 10 10 10
TEMP............58 51 44 44 44 38 36 31 28 26 24 22
RH..............68 88 100 100 94 100 100 100 100 100 100 97
APARNT TMP (F)..58 51 34 34 34 26 24 17 13 10 7 4
SURFACE WND DIR.S SW SW SW SW SW W W W NW NW W
SURFACE WND SPD.33 31 29 29 28 25 25 24 23 25 26 29
SURFACE WND GST.53 51 47 47 45 45 46 46 45 47 48 49
CEILING (HFT)...3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 11 22 27
VISIBILITY (SM).4 3 2.6 2.9 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5
FORECASTER...MPR
REQUESTED BY...CUTTER WHEELER
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 2605878.0/GSP
.DELDT 03/15/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
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