193
FXUS62 KGSP 281819
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
219 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COOL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY INTO SUNDAY,
WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 11 PM
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS WINDY ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER
DRY AIR WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA.
2. WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COOL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY INTO
SUNDAY, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
11 PM THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS WINDY ON SUNDAY,
HOWEVER DRY AIR WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LAST NIGHT, A COOL AND VERY
DRY AIRMASS HAS SET UP. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EAST
COAST AND AS IT MOVES EAST, THE BEST UPPER CONFLUENCE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS PULLING A SURFACE HIGH WITH IT. IN THE
MEANTIME, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND THE
INCOMING HIGH WILL KEEP GUSTY SURFACE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY, WEAKENING BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA, BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING THE
GRADIENT AROUND ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WILL INCREASE
AGAIN. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH IN SOME AREAS
DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT QUITE DROPPED AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST. DRY AIR
ALOFT SHOULD MIX DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS, LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP 8-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, EASILY BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EVEN SOME ACROSS
THE NW PIEDMONT.
SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL FLIP
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE I77 CORRIDOR TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES FROM TODAY'S HIGHS, THOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE
MARCH NORMALS. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY AS WELL IN
RESPONSE TO THE MOIST SURFACE FLOW SO RHS SHOULD NOT BOTTOM OUT TO
CRITICAL LEVELS AREA-WIDE. PLENTY OF AREAS WILL DROP BELOW 30% AND
MOST OF OUR NC COUNTIES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 25%. WINDS WILL NOT
BE QUITE AS HIGH SO CAN SEE THE NEED FOR AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER ON
SUNDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF TO ALLOW THE RFW TO REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
AND PROVIDE TIME FOR ADDITIONAL COORDINATION WITH LAND MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
WARMING AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE WEEK GOES ALONG. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THEN NEARLY
STALL AND ONLY SLIDE THROUGH PART OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THE FRONT
WILL THEN RETURN NORTH NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP THE AREA
IN MOIST FLOW LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY AND NIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH ONLY PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS GUSTY N/NNE WINDS AT TAF TIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, THOUGH PEAK GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH,
DROPPING OFF AFTER SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND
MOVING OFFSHORE WILL VEER WINDS AROUND TO S OF E AROUND THE SAME
TIME THE GUSTS DIMINISH, CURRENT TIMING FOR KCLT IS 01Z. DIRECTION
WILL BE VRB FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT, BUT PICK UP FROM THE SE
WITH MIXING ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
018-026-028-029.
NC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-303-501>510.
SC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ008>014-
019-101>109.
SCW/TDP
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