206
FXUS62 KGSP 300605
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
205 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE WEEK HAVE TRENDED DOWN, BUT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN EACH DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY AS MOISTURE ALSO RETURNS TO
THE REGION.
2. WARM AND HUMID FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY AS MOISTURE ALSO RETURNS
TO THE REGION.
A BENIGN PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH FLAT WESTERLIES DRAPED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CENTERED ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH TODAY AS A BERMUDA RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AREA AND WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS, BUT FUELS REMAIN DRY AND BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARM AND HUMID FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING.
THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS UNDER A STEADY UPPER RIDGE FROM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE, KEEPING A
MUCH DEEPER AND BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE REGION. BY TUESDAY, THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OVERHEAD OF THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING FOR A STEADY MOISTURE FETCH AND
STORM CHANCES TO RETURN. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE DID HAVE A WEAK FRONT
THAT WOULD HAVE PASSED THROUGH, BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEPS THE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST, MEANING ANY BOUNDARY
DISSOLVES BEFORE REACHING THE CWA. THE MAIN POINT IS A RETURN OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN. POP
STARTS TO RAMP UP AS EARLY AS TUESDAY ONWARD WITH MAINLY TYPICAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. QPF RESPONSE CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS A BIT DRIER. THIS DOESN'T MEAN NO RAIN, BUT
ANY RAINFALL IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THESE POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN OCCUR. AS IS THE USUAL FOR THIS TYPE OF PATTERN,
THE HIGHER CHANCES IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, THIS HELPS TO DAMPEN FIRE CONCERNS.
ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES ARE WAY TOO WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE, MAKES FOR A MORE HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND HAS FOSTERED
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DECK OF LOW STRATUS AGAINST THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT. CEILINGS HAVE REMAIN VFR AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AS SUCH WITH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. AT LEAST SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH BEFORE
NUDGING TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS OF
15-20KTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/TW
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