191
FXUS62 KGSP 310609
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
209 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST TRENDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
2. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A RATHER QUIET FORECAST CONTINUES TODAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE WITH
THE REGION DISPLACED SOUTH OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING AND TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WITH A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE, AMPLIFYING WESTWARD AND KEEPING A
MUCH DEEPER AND BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOW FOR A
STEADY MOISTURE FETCH INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ENABLES A RETURN OF
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.
POPS EACH AFTERNOON REFLECT MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION. THOUGH RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE LIKELY, SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED. QPF RESPONSE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA AS A WHOLE
LOOKS MUTE, BUT STILL ANYTHING IS BETTER THAN THE DRY CONDITIONS
THAT HAVE PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ANY RAINFALL IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THESE POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
OCCUR. AS USUAL, THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR POP-UP SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH THE MOISTURE AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, THIS HELPS
TO DAMPEN FIRE CONCERNS FOR THE NEAR FUTURE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD, GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. A DECK OF VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. THE STRATUS MAY SCATTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS
REMAINING VFR. LOW END WIND GUSTS OF 15-20KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE LIGHT WINDS RETURN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO ELEVATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/TW
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