269
FXUS62 KGSP 011020
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
620 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
2. COLD FRONT SUNDAY COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
BROAD AND FLAT UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE GULF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE DISPLACED WEST OF THE REGION WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
CLIMBING THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES. AS SUCH, THE VAST MAJORITY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PASS BY
WELL WEST AND NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS H5 HEIGHTS HOVER
AROUND 582-585 DAM. AT THE SURFACE, SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA WITHIN BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
OVERALL SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED STRETCH OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S EACH DAY. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE GENERALLY FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT MODEST INSTABILITY AND SEASONABLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER CORES WITH ANY DEEPER UPDRAFTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD FRONT SUNDAY COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, GUIDANCE SPINS UP A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE CWA
REMAINS IN AN OPEN WARM SECTOR AS THE PERSISTENT HIGH OFF THE COAST
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS INCREASES
PWATS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS IS THE FIRST SIGNAL FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE HELPFUL. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE
SHOWS A 15-30% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1" FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THOUGH A LOWER CHANCE THAT IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON A FROPA, IT'S THE BEST SIGNAL SEEN IN A WHILE.
ADDITIONALLY, PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WHICH COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS. AT THIS
TIME, SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
PINPOINT THE DETAILS. LOOKING AT LONG RANGE MODELED SOUNDINGS, THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO PROMOTE SUCH STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRONT. SO FOR NOW, EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WITH A LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. SCATTERED VFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AS HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY FILL
EAST. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VFR CONTINUING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND
CEILING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW SPORADIC LOW-END GUSTS
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK: DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GREATER
CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/TW
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