693
FXUS62 KGSP 011827
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST TRENDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ADDED MORE DETAILS ABOUT POSSIBLE FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
2. COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.
3. FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH BERMUDA HIGH ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN, REMAINING
THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEMS
ARE HELD OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST BY THE RIDGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL MAINTAIN
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY MORE REMINISCENT OF MID MAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THE BEST CHANCES
BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TRIGGER
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
BEING BETTER THIS (WEDNESDAY) AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAN EITHER WHAT
WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY, OR WHAT IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY. THIS IS
PRESUMABLY DUE TO ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SFC/UPPER HIGH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST OVERALL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE ESCARPMENT; STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE S TO
SW SUGGESTS ONGOING ACTIVITY IN TN IS NOT LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE
NC MOUNTAINS AND THAT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LOW FOR THE PIEDMONT,
AS MOUNTAIN CELLS SHOULD REMAIN MORE OR LESS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
STILL SEEING A SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUPPRESSED
THURSDAY DUE TO AN INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR ALOFT. CHANCES THEN
TREND UPWARD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES, GENERALLY PROMOTING MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALOFT THAT MAKES DEEP CONVECTION MORE PLAUSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE MOISTURE ALOFT, WITHOUT STRONG FORCING,
RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ENOUGH AT ANY ONE LOCATION TO IMPROVE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS OR LEAD TO ANYTHING MORE THAN A LOCALIZED WETTING
RAIN THAT COULD EASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD HOWEVER LIMIT FIRE DANGER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STATES
INTO CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THIS BEING
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT ARE CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MORNING LOWS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS, SO WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS THERE. MORNING
LOWS WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS FOR ANY CONCERNS
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LOW VFR CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TERMINAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG WITH RIDGETOP CONVERGENCE HAS ALLOWED
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO FORM, AND THESE LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPO TSRA RETAINED AT KAVL FROM PREVIOUS TAF
ISSUANCE WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS A
WEAK CAP AND DRIER PROFILES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY
AT BAY; CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY CELL, BUT CHANCE IS LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT ANY OTHER SITE. SW WINDS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, MAINLY
JUST A FEW MIDLEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ON SHALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COULD LEAD
TO IFR STRATUS MAKING A RUN AT KCLT AND THE SC SITES JUST PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK, BUT THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR FEW-SCT CUMULUS
TO FORM AT IFR OR LOW MVFR LEVEL AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS AFTER
DAYBREAK. SUCH A MENTION IS MADE; A CIG COULD FORM IN SPOTS BUT
GUIDANCE TOO INCONSISTENT IN DEPICTIONS TO JUSTIFY CIGS IN THE
TAFS. BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK: DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GREATER
CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JCW/SCW
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