117
FXUS62 KGSP 192317
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
717 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN NORTHEAST
GEORGIA, WHERE RED FLAG PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT BASED ON THE
OVERLAP OF LOW HUMIDITY, DRY FUELS, AND GUSTY WINDS.
2. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED IN A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. COLDER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT
IN FROST ACROSS LARGER AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS,
AND A FREEZE IN SOME LOCATIONS. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR AVERY, MITCHELL, AND YANCEY COUNTIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
3. DRY AND TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL OFFER A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE
COMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN NORTHEAST
GEORGIA, WHERE RED FLAG PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT BASED ON THE OVERLAP
OF LOW HUMIDITY, DRY FUELS, AND GUSTY WINDS.
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MOST CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA, WHERE A
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM. MEANWHILE, A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT, AS WELL AS
ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE TO FALL QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS AND A DRIER AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BY MID AFTERNOON, RH
VALUES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WERE DROPPING INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE, WITH THE LOWEST VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT OBSERVED
IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. MINIMUM
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON, WHILE
GENERALLY REMAINING SOMEWHAT HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
FUEL CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD. SEVERAL
RAWS SITES REPORT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES BETWEEN 9 AND 14 PERCENT, AND
ADDITIONAL DRYING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
GIVEN STRONG HEATING AND THE DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. THE MOST
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA,
WHERE THE OVERLAP OF THE DRIEST FUELS, DELAYED GREEN UP AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, LOWER HUMIDITY, AND STRONGER WINDS WILL SUPPORT THE
GREATEST FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA,
INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS, FOOTHILLS, AND PIEDMONT. ELSEWHERE,
ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER MESSAGING MAY BE NEEDED. ALTHOUGH WINDS ON
MONDAY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN TODAY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEEP MIXING AND EFFICIENT TRANSPORT OF STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 20 TO 25 MPH
ELSEWHERE, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
DESPITE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS MONDAY, THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT
DRYNESS AND ONGOING DROUGHT WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER ELEVATED ACROSS
THE BROADER REGION.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED. ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL
CATCH AND SPREAD QUICKLY. BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED IN A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COLDER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT COULD
RESULT IN FROST ACROSS LARGER AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS,
AND A FREEZE IN SOME LOCATIONS. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
AVERY, MITCHELL, AND YANCEY COUNTIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED IN A FEW MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST
POTENTIAL EARLY MONDAY MORNING DESPITE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S IN THE NC MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, WINDS MAY
RELAX ENOUGH FOR PATCH FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS.
COLDER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN FROST ACROSS LARGER
AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, AND A FREEZE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AVERY, MITCHELL, AND
YANCEY COUNTIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
REACHING THE MID 30S IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF NC. DRY
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS THE BOARD,
SO ONLY PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED WHERE TEMPERATURES BECOME THAT
COLD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
SO FROST APPEARS SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY THERE, COMPARED TO THE LITTLE
TENNESSEE AND PIGEON RIVER VALLEYS SOUTHWEST OF ASHEVILLE WHICH
ARE MORE LIKELY TO GO CALM. THE LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
LOOKS LOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, EXCEPTING A FEW PEAKS ABOVE
5000 FT.
A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT SETTLING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WILL
REINFORCE CAA. EASTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND EVEN
IN THE NC FOOTHILLS APPEAR LIKELY TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SHALLOW,
DRY MIXED LAYER MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND COLDER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT (TONIGHT). PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-40 AS THE CAA SHOULD BRING TEMPS INTO
THE MID 30S, BUT THE DRY AIR AGAIN WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. THE
CAA AND MIXING ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO SHALLOW TO REACH MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WHERE WEAK WAA ACTUALLY MAY OCCUR IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT. THIS HOWEVER SUGGESTS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL EXPERIENCE
RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE THE SURFACE LAYER
SATURATE. THUS PATCHY FROST IS MORE LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS AND AGAIN
WILL BE MENTIONED. THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR AVERY COUNTY, AND MOST OF MITCHELL AND YANCEY, TO DIP BELOW
FREEZING. THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THOSE COUNTIES,
VALID MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM TUESDAY. IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
CYCLES WE WILL REEVALUATE WHETHER TO EXPAND THE WATCH AND/OR UPGRADE
TO WARNING. IF A FROST ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR ANY AREAS OUTSIDE THE
FREEZE WATCH/WARNING, IT LIKELY WOULD NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY AND TRENDING WARMER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL OFFER A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE
COMING WEEKEND.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK, PROGRESSING EASTWARD SUCH THAT THE RIDGE
AXIS IS OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND
HEIGHTS RISE, THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN ON THE BRIEFLY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIMITED. RH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS LOW
TUESDAY, BUT STILL NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
BRING A SIMILARLY WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE FORCING
WILL BE WEAK AND MOISTURE SORELY LACKING FOR ANY MENTIONABLE POP,
THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE GRADIENT ALOFT AND LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN
WINDS/GUSTS MAINLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WHILE WIND POTENTIAL
IS NOT AS GREAT AS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR AND
A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE. RH IS LIKELY TO TREND
LOWER. BY THURSDAY THE WINDS SHOULD TURN LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY
AGAIN, BUT AT LEAST MARGINALLY CRITICAL RH SHOULD RETURN BOTH THEN
AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO TREND WARMER.
A DEEP TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH ATTENDANT LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS PULLING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE SOUTHEAST US BY EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS SOON AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THOUGH THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES ARRIVE IN OUR CWA ON SATURDAY. GIVEN SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODELS' ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND UPSTREAM CONVECTION, WHICH
LIMITS CONFIDENCE THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IN OUR AREA, WE COLLABORATED WITH WPC TO CAP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE SATURDAY. THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE THAN 0.10" PRECIP OCCURRING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST BY SATURDAY EVENING REMAINS LESS
THAN 50%, SO NOT TERRIBLY SIGNIFICANT IN LIGHT OF THE WORSENING
DROUGHT AND DRY FUEL MOISTURE. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS STALL THE
FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SO THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AT THOSE TIMES.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN
REMAINS WINDS.
WINDS DROP OFF THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT KAVL UNTIL AROUND
05Z. CIRRUS MOVES EAST WITH SKC EXPECTED MOST OF THE NIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH NNW WIND BECOMING VERY
GUSTY AT KAVL. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WSW
INITIALLY THEN TURN WNW AND GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. KAND THE EXCEPTION
WHERE THE DIRECTION REMAINS MORE WESTERLY. HIGH BASED STRATOCU MOVES
IN DURING THE DAY AS WELL.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ018-
026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.
JCW/JK/RWH
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