901
FXUS62 KGSP 201028
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
628 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM FOR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM 11
AM TO 8 PM FOR MOST OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA (OUTSIDE THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS). BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL CATCH
AND SPREAD QUICKLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
2. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS (OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WARNING), THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS, AND THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM TUESDAY. FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS, OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGE UNPROTECTED OUTDOOR PLUMBING.
3. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK, WHILE VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. VERY LOW-TO- CRITICAL
AFTERNOON RH WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM FOR
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM
11 AM TO 8 PM FOR MOST OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA (OUTSIDE THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS). BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL CATCH AND SPREAD
QUICKLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
RAINFALL REMAINED SPARSE OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS YESTERDAY. THUS, VERY DRY FUELS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE GSP CWA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO AROUND
30% ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND BELOW 25% EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WITH THE RETURN OF LOW HUMIDITY, GUSTY WINDS, AND ONGOING DROUGHT,
FIRE CONCERNS WILL RETURN AGAIN TODAY.
A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
AND FUEL MOISTURE FALLING TO 8% OR LESS MAY LEAD TO EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR. ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL CATCH AND SPREAD QUICKLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA (OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS) FOR LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW HUMIDITY, GUSTY WINDS, AND DRY
FUELS COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES.
WITH BURN BANS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS,
OPEN BURNING OF ANY KIND IS ILLEGAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS (OUTSIDE THE FREEZE WARNING), THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS, AND THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM TUESDAY. FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS, OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGE UNPROTECTED OUTDOOR PLUMBING.
CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO GREAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS, AND THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT. WITH THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE LOWS FALL NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT, THE
FREEZE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING. A FROST ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE POLK MOUNTAINS DUE
TO THE THERMAL BELT), THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS, AND THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
AREAS OF FROST SHOULD DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ON FROST DEVELOPMENT IS
HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS BURKE AND
CALDWELL COUNTIES AND LOWER ACROSS THE REST ADVISORY AREA AS VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE COULD LIMIT FROST FORMATION.
TAKE STEPS NOW TO PROTECT TENDER PLANTS FROM THE COLD. IN-GROUND
SPRINKLER SYSTEMS SHOULD BE DRAINED. REMOVE HOSES AND COVER ABOVE-
GROUND PIPES.
KEY MESSAGE 3: TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. VERY LOW-TO-
CRITICAL AFTERNOON RH WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, WHILE A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL STEADILY PROGRESS
TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING/
BREAKING DOWN. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A PERSISTENT,
ALBEIT WEAKENING LOW LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST THAT WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY AIR MASS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UNDER RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND AS THE MID-SPRING SUN MODIFIES
THE AIR MASS, WITH MAX TEMPS WED THRU FRI FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY 7-
11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE MODIFYING AS WELL,
AFTERNOON RH IS STILL FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR DURING THIS TIME
FRAME, BUT THE HOT, DRY CONDITIONS WITHIN A STEADILY WORSENING
DROUGHT SITUATION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY HIGH
FIRE DANGER.
THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE
OFFING FOR THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE DETAILS (NOT
SURPRISINGLY) OF SAID PATTERN CHANGE REMAIN VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.
THEREFORE, UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS, SIGNALS IN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE ADEQUATE TO ADVERTISE INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT BEGIN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED, OUTSIDE OF SOME CIRRUS PASSING
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CALM THROUGH
DAYBREAK BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN SPEED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WSW/SW AROUND
DAYBREAK AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT, SHIFTING NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE WNW/NW AT KAVL
AROUND DAYBREAK. GUSTY WINDS RETURN BY MID-MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT
KAVL. KAVL WILL SEE GUSTS FROM 20-28 KTS, WITH TERMINALS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SEEING GUSTS FROM 18-24 KTS. WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET, WITH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS RETURNING THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TURN NE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NCZ033-049-050.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-501>507.
SC...NONE.
AR/JDL
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