555
FXUS62 KGSP 211312
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
912 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOTHER DRY DAY, WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. OTHERWISE, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
2. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL RETURN EACH AFTERNOON KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY.
3. A COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS A COOLING TREND
THIS WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH THIS BEING TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOTHER DRY DAY, WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. OTHERWISE, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF DRY LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS EVENING, TURNING WINDS FROM LIGHT NE THIS MORNING TO LIGHT
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS, THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
VERY DRY, AND WIDESPREAD RH IN THE 20-30% RANGE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST GA,
WHERE ONLY ONE CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA IS REQUIRED FOR
SAID PRODUCT. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CRITICALLY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RETURN EACH AFTERNOON KEEPING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW WELL ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETURN EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT, THERE WILL
BE NO FROST OR FREEZE CONCERNS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL BELOW 30% EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, KEEPING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AROUND. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DAY OF MOST
CONCERN WITH BREEZY WINDS RETURNING AREA-WIDE. WITH NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPING ALSO EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW 25% ACROSS MOST OF
THE GSP CWA DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THUS, FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS A COOLING
TREND THIS WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
THIS BEING TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAK UPPER TROUGHING TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. AT
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUT OF THE WEST THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE FRONT THEN APPEARS TO STALL OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE US OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAIN. HOWEVER, 18Z
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE LATEST NBM ONLY DEPICT LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST QPF CONCENTRATED
OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT RAINFALL
TOTALS WOULD REMAIN AROUND HALF AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE LREF SHOWS A 30% TO 50% CHANCE FOR AREAS ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER
TO EXCEED HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THE LREF HAS ONLY A 10% TO 20%
CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING HALF AN INCH ACROSS THE REST OF THE GSP
CWA. ALTHOUGH A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY, RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAY STICK AROUND.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
SOME DEGREE OF BRIEF DRYING WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
RETURNS.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE, THUS
MAINTAINING VFR/MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH/MOSTLY
THIN CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. LIGHT NE OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MORE TO THE SW OVERNIGHT. THE SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE WED MORNING.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JDL/PM
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