017
FXUS62 KGSP 212341
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
741 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH 8 PM
TODAY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN
NC AND NORTHEAST GA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, ALONG WITH CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EACH AFTERNOON,
KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY FIRE
THAT DEVELOPS WILL CATCH AND SPREAD QUICKLY. NO OUTDOOR BURNING!
2. A COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS A COOLING TREND
THIS WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH THIS BEING TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST GA THROUGH 8 PM
TODAY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN
NC AND NORTHEAST GA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, ALONG WITH CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY EACH AFTERNOON,
KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY FIRE THAT
DEVELOPS WILL CATCH AND SPREAD QUICKLY. NO OUTDOOR BURNING!
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH
AFTERNOON RH DOWN INTO THE CRITICAL TERRITORY EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND SETS UP A WEAK RETURN FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, THE
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM UP TO ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
GET A BIT WARMER EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO
MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH BUT WON'T MAKE IT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NBM DEWPOINTS WERE
UNDERCUT ACCORDINGLY BECAUSE OF THE KNOWN BIAS. THUS, AFTERNOON
RH STILL FALLS DOWN TO 25 PERCENT OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA WED/THU/FRI.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST CRITICAL DAY BECAUSE OF BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WAY THE FCST
IS CONSTRUCTED, IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT WE WILL REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA, BECAUSE THE BEST WIND GUST POTENTIAL IS ACROSS
THE RIDGETOPS AND PEAKS ABOVE 5K FEET WHERE THE RH IS THE
GREATEST. FOR NOW, AFTER COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS AND THE
LAND MANAGERS, WE WILL HANDLE THIS WITH ANOTHER INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEAST GA AND OUR WESTERN NC ZONES FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE CONSIDERED
AS THEY COME. THE BURN BAN ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS SC.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS A COOLING
TREND THIS WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
THIS BEING TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL FINALLY DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL AND ACTIVE. THE FIRST WAVE
TO EJECT OUT OF THE WEST AND FLATTEN THE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THRU THE CWFA,
WHICH WILL BRING OUR FIRST RAIN CHANCES IN A WHILE. AS EXPECTED,
MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE LOWER ON QPF, WITH THE 00Z LREF NOW
ONLY SHOWING A 30% OF HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL SAT-SAT NIGHT,
AND <20% ELSEWHERE. POPS HAVE ACTUALLY TRENDED UP, AS CONFIDENCE
ON AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT STARTING SUNDAY, BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST AND BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE CWFA
AGAIN TUESDAY. IT MAY ACTUALLY TAP INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE AND
THE 00Z LREF HAS A 30% TO 60% CHANCE OF HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM (LOWEST EAST AND HIGHEST IN THE SMOKIES). GIVEN
THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TENDING TO BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC WITH RAINFALL WHEN OUT ON DAY 7, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODEST AND THE NBM'S LIKELY POPS MAY BE OVERDONE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BECOME FEW OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY TOMORROW MORNING
AT MOST SITES. S TO SW WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME SITES POSSIBLY GOING LIGHT AND VRB AT TIMES. OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS, WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SW TOMORROW MORNING, BECOMING MORE
WSW WITH LOW-END GUSTS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. AT KAVL, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK UP FROM
THE NW BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. KAVL COULD SEE A FEW LOW-
END GUSTS TOMORROW, BUT THEY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE
WORK WEEK AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS THIS WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.
ARK/JPT/PM
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