143
FXUS62 KGSP 221020
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
620 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR OUR NC AND GA COUNTIES. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY LOW-TO-CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON, KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER ELEVATED THROUGH
FRIDAY. ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL CATCH AND SPREAD QUICKLY. NO
OUTDOOR BURNING!
2. TRENDING TOWARDS A WETTER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A COOLING TREND DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY BEFORE
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR OUR NC AND GA
COUNTIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY LOW-TO-CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON, KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER ELEVATED THROUGH
FRIDAY. ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL CATCH AND SPREAD QUICKLY. NO
OUTDOOR BURNING!
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, ALBEIT WEAKENING AND
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY, AS AN UPPER CYCLONE BROADENS
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIE. WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELINQUISHED ITS GRIP ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH A LEE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT ENHANCE S/SW
FLOW LATER TODAY...MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CWA REMAINS WEAK TO
NON-EXISTENT. THUS THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, EVEN AS TEMPERATURES WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING TODAY UNDER RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO...ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP UP, THE WARMER TEMPS WILL RESULT
IN YET ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF WIDESPREAD 20-30% RH. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE A BIT OVER PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS IN THE
15-20 MPH RANGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NORTHEAST GA. (A REMINDER
THAT A STATEWIDE BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CAROLINA AS
WELL AS NC.)
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WARM THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISING TREND, AND THURSDAY'S MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BY ANOTHER 4-5 DEGREES...PLACING THEM AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE THEIR POSITIVE CREEP, BUT
THE WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ADD TO OUR STREAK OF DAYS
WITH CRITICAL AFTERNOON RH (AT LEAST FOR A PART OF THE AREA). FIRE
DANGER STATEMENTS MAY AGAIN BE NECESSARY. THE WARMING TREND PLATEAUS
IN THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME, WITH FRIDAY'S FORECAST MAXES BEING
VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS MAY CREEP UP JUST ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE CRITICALLY LOW VALUES BEING MET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT,
SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SOURCES SUGGEST HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS...AND
A 20 POP IS CARRIED FOR THIS FRI AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TRENDING TOWARDS A WETTER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. A COOLING TREND DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUT OF THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
FINALLY RETURN SATURDAY SO REMOVED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NBM IS
TRENDING DRIER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND COOLER REGARDING HIGHS ON
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE GSP CWA AND
AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS HIGH IS ABLE TO SINK, DRIER CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN BRIEFLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (WHICH LINES UP WITH THE LATEST
NBM POP TRENDS). HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE HIGH WILL TRACK SO CONFIDENCE ON POPS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS LOW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY HALF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE
GSP CWA PER THE LATEST NBM. THE MOUNTAIN ZONES STILL APPEAR TO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST NBM HAS GONE UP SLIGHTLY REGARDING
RAINFALL TOTALS THIS WEEKEND COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND
APPEARS TO BE MORE ALIGNED WITH THE 18Z ECMWF. THE 18Z ECMWF
GENERALLY SHOWS 0.25" TO 0.75" RAINFALL ACROSS THE GSP CWA THIS
WEEKEND AS IT SHOWS WETTER CONDITIONS WITH THE COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, THE 18Z GFS SHOWS LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE WEEKEND, RANGING MOSTLY FROM A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH TO
0.25", AS IT SHOWS DRIER CONDITIONS WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
12Z LREF PROBABILITIES HAVE TRENDED DOWN FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
EXCEEDING HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. PROBABILITIES ARE NOW HIGHEST
ACROSS SWAIN, GRAHAM, AND MACON COUNTIES WITH THE LREF SHOWING A 30%
TO 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE, THE
LREF SHOWS LESS THAN A 25% CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING HALF AN
INCH. ALL THIS TO SAY, CONFIDENCE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW
WITH GLOBAL MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT AS WELL AS LREF PROBABILITIES OF
>0.50" OF RAINFALL TRENDING DOWNWARD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUT OF THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
MAY GIVE US A BETTER SHOT AT HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS BUT WITH THIS
BEING TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
THE 12Z LREF SHOWS A 50% TO 60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING HALF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, THE SOUTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, AND THE GEORGIA MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH A 30% TO 45% CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF THE GSP CWA. IN
REGARDS TO RAINFALL EXCEEDING AN INCH, THE 12Z LREF ONLY SHOWS A 20%
TO 30% CHANCE WEST OF I-77.
ALTHOUGH A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED IN REGARDS TO HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH TUESDAY'S HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CONCERNS REGARDING FROST OR FREEZE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT, RESULTING
IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. SCT MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH SKC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE
SOME FEW/SCT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS/STRATOCU IN THE 070-090 RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT SSW EARLY, INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KTS AT MOST SITES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE
WORK WEEK AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS THIS WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.
AR/JDL
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