451
FXUS62 KGSP 221939
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT WAS ISSUED FOR THE UPSTATE REGION OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FOR FINE PARTICULATE SMOKE. THE AQA IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET, WITH A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR OUR NC AND GA COUNTIES UNTIL
8 PM. VERY LOW-TO-CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON, KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY
FIRE THAT DEVELOPS WILL CATCH AND SPREAD QUICKLY. NO OUTDOOR
BURNING!
2. SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ON
SATURDAY ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE
RETURNS LATER MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET,
WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR OUR NC AND GA COUNTIES
UNTIL 8 PM. VERY LOW-TO-CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON, KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY FIRE
THAT DEVELOPS WILL CATCH AND SPREAD QUICKLY. NO OUTDOOR BURNING!
THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE DAYLIGHT
PERIOD AS ANY WEAK MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SFC HIGH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BE OFFSET BY TEMPS CLIMBING UP TO ABOUT TEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF
15-20 MPH WILL ONLY MAKE THE SITUATION MORE TENUOUS. THUS, THE
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AND OUTDOOR
BURNING SHOULD NOT BE DONE.
THE DRY PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE
MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TODAY, TO THE MIDWEST/TN VALLEY THURSDAY,
TO THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY, WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING THE WHOLE
WAY. THE POSITION OF A REMNANT SFC HIGH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SHOULD KEEP SOME WEAK MOISTURE RETURN ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT NOT AT A RATE THAT WOULD OFFSET THE
RISING TEMPS ENOUGH TO IMPROVE THE LOW AFTERNOON RH PROBLEM. THE
MODEL BLEND LOOKS TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH THE DEWPOINT RISES FOR
THURSDAY AND THE DRIEST GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN, WHICH RESULTS
IN GOOD CONFIDENCE OF ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH MIN RH DOWN IN THE
20-25 PERCENT RANGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS LOOKS LOW FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WITH THE ONGOING DRY WEATHER SITUATION,
ANOTHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE
TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY TOP OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD SEVERAL DEGREES, SUCH
THAT OUR NEW FORECAST WILL INDICATE THE NEAR-CRITICAL RH ONLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. THAT MIGHT BE THE LAST AFTERNOON FOR INCREASED
FIRE DANGER. SOME OF THE CAM GUIDANCE GOES OUT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF RIDGETOP CONVECTION OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN BORDER, SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
KEPT THERE. BOTTOM LINE...PLEASE REFRAIN FROM ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
THROUGH FRIDAY SO AS NOT TO CAUSE ANY WILDFIRES.
AS TO AIR QUALITY...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER SOUTHERN GA WILL
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER PIEDMONT AND LAKELANDS. THE 12Z RUN OF THE
HRRR SHOWS A PLUME OF HIGH NEAR-SFC SMOKE DENSITY EMANATING FROM
SOUTHEAST GA TOMORROW AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABBEVILLE
AND GREENWOOD TOWARD LAURENS/UNION/ROCK HILL TOMORROW NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME NUMEROUS
ON SATURDAY ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE RETURNS LATER MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING BY TUESDAY.
THE INHERITED SENSIBLE WX FORECAST FOR SATURDAY REMAINS VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED. SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND AS A RIBBON OF WEAK POSITIVE
MUCAPE BUBBLES NORTH IN THE PIEDMONT, A FEW TSTMS MAY BE EMBEDDED.
QPF REMAINS PALTRY, AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO
REMAIN OR BECOME SCATTERED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON
LEADING TO A FEW LOCALES MISSING OUT ON THE BRIEF WETTING RAINFALL.
THE 22/00Z LREF QPF TREND CONTINUES, LIMITING 30-50% PROBABILITIES
FOR VALUES EXCEEDING HALF AN INCH TO THE SMOKIES.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL DRYING SUNDAY NIGHT, DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ATOP DEPARTING WEAK SFC RIDGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE
EARLY WORK WEEK SYSTEM IS FEATURING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN EVER NARROWING FRONTAL BAND WELL
SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW. THIS FRONTAL FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH FORCING FOR
PCPN LIMITED, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN ON JUST HOW MUCH PCPN MAKES IT
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. NO SURPRISES WITH RESPECT FOR QPF
PROBABILITIES FROM THE 22/00Z LREF WHICH STILL CONFINE BEST CHANCES
FOR VALUES EXCEEDING ON HALF INCH TO SW NC
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH A CAVEAT. EVENTUALLY, VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTED AS SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER SOUTH GA DRIFTS TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS. FOR NOW, THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE PROBLEMS, BUT
IT IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY THAT SMOKE/HAZE COULD BEGIN TO REDUCE
THE VIS TO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT THE UPSTATE
TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY EVEN KCLT. OTHERWISE, ONLY HIGH CLOUDS, AND
JUST A WIND FORECAST. MOST TERMINALS WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL LOW END
GUSTS FROM THE SW THRU EARLY EVENING, THEN A LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND
OVERNIGHT. WIND SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG THURSDAY, STILL LIGHT SW.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE WORK
WEEK AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
THIS WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.
CSH/PM
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