947
FXUS62 KGSP 231026
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
626 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. VERY WARM CONDITIONS, WITH VERY LOW-TO-CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, KEEPING THE
FIRE DANGER ELEVATED. ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO SPREAD QUICKLY. NO OUTDOOR BURNING!
2. TRENDING TOWARDS A WETTER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN BRIEFLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SECOND COLD
FRONT (WHICH IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY). TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: VERY WARM CONDITIONS, WITH VERY LOW-TO-CRITICAL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY,
KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER ELEVATED. ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY. NO OUTDOOR BURNING!
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-MISS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
STATES TODAY, BEFORE BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS TWO UPPER
LOWS: ONE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND THE OTHER OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES DEEPEN AND BROADEN. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS
ALONG WITH SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MAX TEMPS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO BOTH DAYS. DESPITE THE SW FLOW, LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
ARE ORIGINATING OFF THE EASTERN GULF, WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL. THUS, MOISTURE FLUX INTO OUR CWA WILL
REMAIN MEAGER, AND DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY CREEP UPWARD AS
THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CRITICAL RH
IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 20-25% VALUES, AND AT
LEAST SPOTTY VALUES IN THE TEENS. WINDS WILL BE LESS OF A FACTOR
THAN YESTERDAY, BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES, THE LOW RH, AND VERY DRY
VEGETATION WILL RESULT IN YET ANOTHER DAY WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH (FOR
MID-SPRING) FIRE DANGER. FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS FOR TODAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO NORTHEAST GA...WHERE ONLY ONE CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL
PARAMETER IS NECESSARY FOR AN FDS...AND WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING BURN
BANS FOR THE CAROLINAS TO SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES. SIMILAR TEMPS AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WE STILL
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD 25-35% VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING...WHICH WILL
BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER IN LIGHT OF THE DIRE
FUELS SITUATION AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TRENDING TOWARDS A WETTER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN BRIEFLY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SECOND COLD
FRONT (WHICH IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY). TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY.
WE FINALLY SEE A PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RAIN CHANCES RETURN AHEAD OF TWO COLD FRONTS. THE FIRST FRONT IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND THE SECOND ONE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER WITH THE SECOND FRONT ON
TUESDAY COMPARED TO THE FIRST FRONT ON SATURDAY. REMOVED POPS AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NBM CONTINUES TO BE TOO FAST REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES COMPARED TO GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS RAIN
GENERALLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE NBM HAS
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING 0.50" OF RAINFALL OR LESS ACROSS
MOST OF THE GSP CWA ON SATURDAY AS WELL AS DEPICTING THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. THE NBM SHOWS 0.25" TO 0.5" OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM 0.6" TO 0.75" ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NC/TN BORDER COUNTIES. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THE NBM ONLY
SHOWS 0.15" TO 0.25" OF RAINFALL. THE NBM SEEMS TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z LREF AS LREF PROBABILITIES SHOW A 30% TO 50%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.5" OF RAINFALL OVER GRAHAM, SWAIN, AND MACON
COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A 25% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.5" OF RAINFALL
ELSEWHERE. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY, LREF PROBABILITIES
HAVE TRENDED DOWN COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, WITH ONLY A 30%
TO 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.50" OF RAINFALL ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER
COUNTIES, NORTHEAST GEORGIA, AND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
UPSTATE (MAINLY PICKENS AND OCONEE COUNTIES) AND LESS THAN A 25%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.50" OF RAINFALL ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, THE NBM IS
SHOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 0.50" OF RAINFALL
ON TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL TRENDS REGARDING
TUESDAY CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
THE 18Z EURO AND 12Z CANADIAN SHOW DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS RAIN
CHANCES AROUND BEHIND THE FRONT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT WILL DETERMINE IF
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN OR NOT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z
CANADIAN SHOW RAIN CHANCES LINGERING BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AS THEY ARE FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
AREA. MEANWHILE, THE 12Z EURO SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS IT IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. THUS, CONFIDENCE ON DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY REMAINS LOW DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY WHEN HIGHS FALL NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WITH A DRY AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE...
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THE CAVEAT
IS THAT BRIEF PERIODS OF 3-6SM VISBY CAN'T BE RULED OUT DUE TO
HZ OR SMOKE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES OVER SOUTH GA/NORTHERN FL,
BUT TIMING OF THIS...OR EVEN IF IT WILL OCCUR AT ALL...IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY LIGHT/VRBL WINDS OR LIGHT SW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY...BECOMING SW AT 6-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU FRIDAY
AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND SOME ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
THIS WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JDL
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