635
FXUS62 KGSP 240641
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARM TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-CRITICAL RH EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. BANS ON OUTDOOR BURNING CONTINUE IN BOTH NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
2. PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
RAIN CHANCES EVERY DAY BUT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-CRITICAL RH EXPECTED
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. BANS ON OUTDOOR BURNING CONTINUE IN BOTH
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS HIGH AS 15-20
DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, AND CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A BAND OF STRATOCU ANCHORED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
FROM ROUGHLY SPARTANBURG TO LINCOLNTON.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS PRESENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING UPPER LOWS OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE, A BERMUDA HIGH-LIKE CONFIGURATION WILL CONTINUE MORE
OR LESS UNABATED. DESPITE STEADY SSW SURFACE FLOW...DEWPOINTS
WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER THROUGH THE DAY, AND ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF
LOW RH IS EXPECTED. NEAR-CRITICAL RHS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH AT LEAST SOME LOCATIONS ALONG I-77 FALLING BELOW
25% RH. HOWEVER, WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TODAY, LAND
MANAGERS HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY NEED FOR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
FOR NC AND SC, BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE 00Z SUITE OF HI-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON,
AS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. SKEPTICAL OF ANY RAIN
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND, GIVEN HOW DRY THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS.
BUT, CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER HERE OR THERE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH RAIN CHANCES EVERY DAY BUT MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST
ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE AN FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL, BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM CHANCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH A HALF TO POSSIBLY
AN INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. VERY WELCOME BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER ON
SUNDAY IN THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY BUT LOOK
WEDGE-LIKE IN THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. AFTER A DRY MONDAY, RAIN
CHANCES RETURN WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS PERIOD, HOPEFULLY BRINGING SOME
DROUGHT RELIEF. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY RISE
BACK ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR TO CONTINUE FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT,
WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL DAYTIME CU ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE SW BY MID-MORNING...WITH LOW-END SPORADIC
GUSTS POSSIBLE, BUT TOO INFREQUENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT
AGAIN, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN
THE KAVL TAF. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND SOME
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. GENERALLY DRY,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MPR/RWH
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