606
FXUS62 KGSP 241809
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
209 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, ONLY MINOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARM TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-CRITICAL RH EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. BANS ON OUTDOOR BURNING CONTINUE IN BOTH NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
2. PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A WELCOME
RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-CRITICAL RH EXPECTED AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. BANS ON OUTDOOR BURNING CONTINUE IN BOTH NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE NRN STREAM
SUPPORTS ONE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS GETTING UP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE DEWPOINT CONTINUES TO
CREEP UPWARD THANKS TO A LIGHT SSW SFC FLOW COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, THE RH WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL DOWN
TO NEAR-CRITICAL LEVELS DURING PEAK HEATING FOR ONE LAST DAY IN
THIS STRING. NO FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS WERE ISSUED BECAUSE WINDS
ARE LIGHT ENOUGH, THOUGH BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SC AND
NC. AIR QUALITY ALERTS ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE IN SOME PARTS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE, SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT CONVECTION HAS
INDEED FORMED ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OF NC, THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PART
OF GA, AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTH MTNS. THE CONVECTION WAS MAKING
THE ABSOLUTE MOST OF THE MEAGER AND SHALLOW CAPE (AROUND 250 J/KG)
THAT IS OUT THERE ON THE MESOANALYSIS, BUT WE WILL TAKE IT. PRECIP
PROBS WERE BUMPED UP MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET THROUGH
PEAK HEATING. THIS IS MORE A CURIOSITY THAN ANYTHING, BEING THAT
WE'VE HAD SO LITTLE RAIN LATELY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY
SUNSET. THEN...WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF A FRONT FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
WELCOME RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES.
A LONG AWAITED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE STARTING
TOMORROW INTO NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A MUCH NEEDED
RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES. A LARGE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A BELT OF SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER ARKANSAS WILL DROP INTO
MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING WITH CAMS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN MCV TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
QLCS. GUIDANCE LIFTS THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
NORTHERN GEORGIA TOMORROW MORNING AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP FOSTER THE RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AS THE MCV INTERACTING
WITH PEAK HEATING KICKS OFF AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FIRST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY STALL JUST TO OUR WEST WITH SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES BRINING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY FINALLY CLEAR LATER IN THE WEEK. HOW MUCH RAIN WE MAY SEE
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EVOLVE UPSTREAM, BUT
HOPEFULLY WE'LL FINALLY HAVE APPRECIABLE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN WEEKS. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALSO REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE, BUT MOST CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY IF ANY ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAKES A RUN AT
THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ONCE
MORE. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED GIVEN MEAGER INSTABILITY,
BUT NONE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH A TERMINAL BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET. OTHERWISE, JUST SCATTERED HIGH-BASED RELATIVELY SHALLOW
CU. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE PREVAILING SW, BUT SOME VARIABILITY
SHOULD BE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A FEW LOW-END WIND GUSTS. TONIGHT
SHOULD BE QUIET AGAIN WITH A LIGHT WIND. THE APPROACHING FRONT
WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IN THE LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. ONLY KAVL STANDS A CHANCE OF GETTING
A RESTRICTION BEFORE 18Z, SO A PROB30 WAS USED FOR SHOWERS WITH AN
MVFR VIS. THE KCLT FORECAST GOES OUT FAR ENOUGH INTO EARLY EVENING
THAT A PROB30 WAS EMPLOYED THERE AS WELL.
OUTLOOK: RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY
DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
PM/TW
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