757
FXUS62 KGSP 250020
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
820 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARM TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-CRITICAL RH EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. BANS ON OUTDOOR BURNING CONTINUE IN BOTH NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
2. PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A WELCOME
RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARM TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-CRITICAL RH EXPECTED AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. BANS ON OUTDOOR BURNING CONTINUE IN BOTH NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE NRN STREAM
SUPPORTS ONE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS GETTING UP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE DEWPOINT CONTINUES TO
CREEP UPWARD THANKS TO A LIGHT SSW SFC FLOW COURTESY OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, THE RH WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL DOWN
TO NEAR-CRITICAL LEVELS DURING PEAK HEATING FOR ONE LAST DAY IN
THIS STRING. NO FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS WERE ISSUED BECAUSE WINDS
ARE LIGHT ENOUGH, THOUGH BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SC AND
NC. AIR QUALITY ALERTS ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE IN SOME PARTS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE, SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT CONVECTION HAS
INDEED FORMED ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS OF NC, THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PART
OF GA, AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTH MTNS. THE CONVECTION WAS MAKING
THE ABSOLUTE MOST OF THE MEAGER AND SHALLOW CAPE (AROUND 250 J/KG)
THAT IS OUT THERE ON THE MESOANALYSIS, BUT WE WILL TAKE IT. PRECIP
PROBS WERE BUMPED UP MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET THROUGH
PEAK HEATING. THIS IS MORE A CURIOSITY THAN ANYTHING, BEING THAT
WE'VE HAD SO LITTLE RAIN LATELY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY
SUNSET. THEN...WE AWAIT THE APPROACH OF A FRONT FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
WELCOME RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES.
A LONG AWAITED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE STARTING
TOMORROW INTO NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A MUCH NEEDED
RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES. A LARGE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A BELT OF SOUTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER ARKANSAS WILL DROP INTO
MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING WITH CAMS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN MCV TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
QLCS. GUIDANCE LIFTS THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
NORTHERN GEORGIA TOMORROW MORNING AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP FOSTER THE RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AS THE MCV INTERACTING
WITH PEAK HEATING KICKS OFF AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FIRST OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ARRIVE AS
EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY STALL JUST TO OUR WEST WITH SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES BRINING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY FINALLY CLEAR LATER IN THE WEEK. HOW MUCH RAIN WE MAY SEE
WILL DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EVOLVE UPSTREAM, BUT
HOPEFULLY WE'LL FINALLY HAVE APPRECIABLE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN WEEKS. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALSO REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE, BUT MOST CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY IF ANY ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAKES A RUN AT
THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WE'RE STILL SEEING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT THEY SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT
ON ANY TAF SITES AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
IT LOOKS LIKE OUR SWLY WINDS HAVE LOST THEIR LOW-END GUSTS SINCE
THE SUN SET. THEY SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM AGAIN TONIGHT/
OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK BACK UP FROM THE SW BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING LOWER CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW, WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. I HAVE PREVAILING SHRA AT
KAVL BEGINNING AROUND 18Z AND AT 19Z FOR THE UPSTATE TERMINALS ALONG
WITH SOME LOW-END GUSTS. AT KHKY AND KCLT, PREVAILING SHRA BEGINS
AT 21 AND 23Z, RESPECTIVELY. I ALSO INCLUDED A ROUGHLY 4 HR PROB30
FOR -TSRA AT ALL TAF SITES AS SOME AMOUNT OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT TOMORROW. IN ADDITION, PREVAILING CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AT KCLT LATE TOMORROW NIGHT BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT/PM/TW
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