139
FXUS62 KGSP 250641
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WARMER WITH LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A ROUND OF MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WILL PROVIDED SOME RELIEF FROM
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS SATURDAY, AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.
2. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN
CHANCES NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE DAILY
FORECAST AS TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A ROUND OF MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WILL PROVIDED SOME
RELIEF FROM ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS SATURDAY, AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS START TO CREEP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH
CIRRUS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO THE SMOKIES AND BALSAMS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALOFT, A BROAD,
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
DELTA INTO THE OZARKS. IN RESPONSE, PATCHY SHOWERS ARE UNDERWAY
IN CENTRAL TENNESSEE, AND DRIFTING SLOWLY BUT SURELY EASTWARD.
TODAY'S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE ADVANCEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
GENERALLY THINK CLOUD COVER WILL STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AS THE FRONT MARCHES
EASTWARD. SW WINDS SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF IT,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20MPH EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION,
MOSTLY SHOWERS AT FIRST, WILL CREEP OUT OF TENNESSEE INTO THE NC
MOUNTAINS BY NOON, THEN PIVOT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE SETUP DOESN'T LOOK GREAT FOR EITHER SEVERE OR HEAVY RAINFALL:
A LACK OF ROBUST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL PREVENT LAPSE RATES FROM
STEEPENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S. SO, FORECAST PROFILES
FROM THE HI-RES GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORT 400-800 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...AND A LACK OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN
NEGLIGIBLE SHEAR IN ALL BUT THE MOST AGGRESSIVE REFS SOLUTIONS
(AND THE USUALLY-OVERDONE NAMNEST). SO, THERE'S NEITHER SUPPORT
FOR THE ORGANIZATION REQUIRED FOR A BETTER SEVERE THREAT NOR THE
STRONG, DEEP, AND WARM UPDRAFTS NEEDED FOR HEAVY RAIN. ALL TOLD,
SOME NON-SEVERE EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED, WITH THE 00Z HREF'S
PMM FIELDS SUPPORTING 0.25"-0.5" OF RAIN, WITH ISOLATED AREAS
RECEIVING >0.5". DROPS IN THE BUCKET THAT IS OUR CURRENT DROUGHT
STATUS...BUT EVERY ONE OF THOSE DROPS WILL HELP!
RAINFALL AND LINGERING THUNDER SHOULD PUSH EAST BY LATE EVENING AND
INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WHEN MOISTURE WILL
FINALLY BE SCOURED OUT BY WEAK POSTFRONTAL CAA...ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF ANOTHER DRY AIR MASS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE
DAILY FORECAST AS TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ON MONDAY WILL BRING A DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THEN CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE OF PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT MOVES NEAR THE AREA TUESDAY THEN STALLS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT PUSHING IT SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY,
FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP SPREADING
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
FORCING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE BENEFICIAL
RANGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY.
THE DIFFERENCES REALLY DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT MAY
STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION TO KEEP A MOIST, EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA, OR IT MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRY AIR MASS TO MOVE
IN. A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE WEST AND MAY MOVE FAST
ENOUGH TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES BY THE END OF THE DAY, OR IT COULD
MOVE MORE SLOWLY KEEPING MOST RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
THE MODEL BLEND HAS LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND MODERATE
CHANCES FRIDAY. AGAIN, THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE
BLEND ALSO HAS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND BELOW NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: FINALLY A LITTLE ACTION IN THE UPCOMING
TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY. ALREADY
SEEING THE FIRST HINTS OF PREFRONTAL CIRRUS EXPANDING ACROSS THE
SMOKIES AND BALSAMS, AND EXPECT THAT CIRRUS COVERAGE TO CONTINUE
MARCHING EASTWARD THROUGH MID-MORNING. THEN, AS THE FRONT
DRAWS NEARER...EXPECT A FEW/SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP...ALBEIT
WITH UNSEASONABLY HIGH BASES AT FL060-080. BY EARLY AFTERNOON
SCATTERED SHRA SHOULD APPEAR IN THE NC MOUNTAINS, AND PIVOT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
EXPECT SOME EMBEDDED TSRA...BUT COULDN'T JUSTIFY MORE THAN PROB30S
FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON, WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END BY LATE EVENING, BUT IN ITS WAKE
SEVERAL GUIDANCE SOURCES DEPICT LINGERING MVFR CLOUD BASES (AND
PERHAPS PATCHY FOG) ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MPR/RWH
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