163
FXUS62 KGSP 251730
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
130 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN TOTALS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LESS FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.
2. A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, TRIGGERING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. THOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT
TOO IMPRESSIVE, ANY AMOUNT IS WELCOMED. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF THE NC MOUNTAINS, WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO NE GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SC LATER THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT UP TO 0.25", WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING
A TICK MORE, DEPENDING ON WHERE STORMS ACTUALLY SETUP. AS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, CURRENT GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING
SEVERE. A STOUT INVERTED-V SOUNDING SHOWS A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UPWARD. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO POOR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE STILL
POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN BUILD HIGH ENOUGH. SO, EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS
TO CASUALLY DRIFT BY AND RUSTLE UP THE WINDS BRIEFLY, BEFORE DRY AIR
RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. THE FROPA IS EXPECTED TO BE SO WEAK THAT IT HAS
ALMOST NO EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD UPPER
70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND 80S ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A COOLER AND
WETTER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS HUDSON
BAY WITH A BELT OF SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES DRAPED FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE LEAD
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED BAND OF CONVECTION WILL MAKE A RUN AT WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOW FAR ANY ACTIVITY
PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND FORCING WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT
THE SAME TIME, A SECOND WAVE WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION PROPAGATING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. THE
UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENTS BOTH DAYS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH, ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER. WHILE SOME DEGREE OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA, IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION
EVOLVES AND TO WHAT DEGREE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FARTHER
EAST. THEREAFTER, GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRING AT LEAST
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A FAST MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS TO START WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO POP-UP EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR
THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS, -RA AND SHRA SHOULD SUFFICE. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR -RA AND -TSRA ELSEWHERE, SO WILL KEEP THE -TSRA IN A
TEMPO FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. VCSH AND -SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LOW CIGS COULD BRING IN MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
FOR KCLT/KGSP, SCT005 IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE. WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH LOW-END GUSTS AT KGSP/KCLT AHEAD
OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND TURN N/NE TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT FOR SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ON TUESDAY COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/TW
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