306
FXUS62 KGSP 252359
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
759 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED POP, TEMP, VISIBILITY TRENDS OVERNIGHT. REVISED KEY
MESSAGE 1 AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS ACCORDINGLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS TAPER OFF TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.
2. A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS TAPER OFF TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR RETURNS
FOR SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA. REMAINING RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES, WITH RAIN HAVING BEEN BENEFICIAL
TODAY. ASIDE FROM A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STRIPES OF 1" TO 1.5"
TOTALS FROM THE EMBEDDED CONVECTION, MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BUT THOSE SHOULD GENERALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW OVERNIGHT, REMAINING NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA BORDER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER EASTERN KY/TN WILL SHIFT
OVERHEAD AND COULD ALLOW REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO. A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT, THOUGH WE ONLY
MANAGED A HANDFUL ACROSS OUR WHOLE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON, AND PROFILES DON'T LOOK TO BECOME ANY MORE FAVORABLE
OVERNIGHT, SO THUNDER LOOKS QUITE UNLIKELY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE OVERNIGHT, BUT ALSO TENDING TO OCCUR WEST
TO EAST. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEING
NEARLY SATURATED, PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER
REACHES OF THE CATAWBA/BROAD VALLEYS, THOSE AREAS ALL POTENTIALLY
CLEARING SOONER. VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL RELATIVELY LOW, SO IF/WHERE WINDS REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT
AND DECENT RAINFALL FELL IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, LOCALLY DENSE
FOG COULD BECOME POSSIBLE.
DRY AIR RETURNS FOR SUNDAY WITH RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING. THE FROPA IS EXPECTED TO BE SO WEAK THAT IT HAS ALMOST
NO EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND 80S ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A COOLER AND
WETTER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS HUDSON
BAY WITH A BELT OF SOUTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES DRAPED FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE LEAD
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED BAND OF CONVECTION WILL MAKE A RUN AT WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOW FAR ANY ACTIVITY
PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND FORCING WILL BE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT
THE SAME TIME, A SECOND WAVE WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION PROPAGATING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. THE
UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENTS BOTH DAYS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH, ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER. WHILE SOME DEGREE OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA, IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION
EVOLVES AND TO WHAT DEGREE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FARTHER
EAST. THEREAFTER, GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRING AT LEAST
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A FAST MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS HAS OCCURRED AT
ALL THE TAF TERMINALS, WITH COLD FRONT HAVING SETTLED SOUTH OF
THE AREA. -SHRA SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 04Z OR
SO, THOUGH NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT
NEAR KCLT, KGSP, KGMU AS FRONT SLOWS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. REMAINING CHANCE OF TS IS SMALL ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION
AT ANY SITE, SO ONLY -SHRA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE AS
RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY AT KAND. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO OCCUR BY 03-04Z WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING, AND WITH LOW-LEVEL DRYING NOT LOOKING TO OCCUR UNTIL
A SECONDARY FRONT COMES IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBY WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THOUGH LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE ENOUGH MIXING TO MAKE CIGS THE MAIN DRIVER
OF RESTRICTIONS. IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS SHOULD OCCUR 12-14Z WITH A
FEW MVFR TO LOW VFR CUMULUS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING, THOUGH THAT IS
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE CIGS. WINDS WILL VEER TO NE BY SUNDAY MORNING
EXCEPT AT KAVL WHICH SHOULD REMAIN NW.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/JCW/TW
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