026
FXUS62 KGSP 091836
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A TAD WARMER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE RECENT 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKLY-BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD
HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS,
WITH LOWER CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING ONLY SLOWLY SCATTERING OUT.
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME BRIEF, VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE I-40 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON (AS DEPICTED IN
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR, RRFS, AND NAMNEST) THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF
SHOULD BE DRY AND QUIET. SOME LOW-END WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE LOW TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH NO MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT ON SUNDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
DIGS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND AT A DRIER AIR MASS NOSES DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY HAVE TRENDED WARMER OWING
PRIMARILY TO ANTICIPATED CLEAR, SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS NOW
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-80S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
BROAD UPPER TROFING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE NE CONUS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF GETTING REINFORCED ON WED-
NESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SFC, AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT
SLOWLY DROPS TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MOVES THRU OUR FCST AREA
ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
DEVELOP ALONG A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH.
OVERALL, THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TRENDING SLOWER
WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY AND SUBSEQUENT LOW
DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE STILL PRODUCES MINIMUM QPF OVER
OUR CWA, WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECTED
AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY UP TO 0.1 INCHES ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-85 AND UP
TO ABOUT 0.25 INCHES SOUTH OF I-85. IN ADDITION, MOST OF THE PRECIP
IS NOW EXPECTED TO FALL MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL OVER OUR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ON MONDAY, BUT THE HIGHER CAPE VALUES APPEAR
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IN ADDITION, SPC'S CURRENT DAY 3 SEVERE OUT-
LOOK HAS A MARGINAL RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD PRODUCE SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND/OR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY OVER OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THURS AND FRI. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH TUES BEING THE MAIN EXCEPTION. IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT, LOWS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MTNS
MAY BOTTOM-OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TUES MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE, INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING
GSP, GMU, AND AND. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE
RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE SPORADIC OVER THE NEXT
2 HOURS OR SO, AND A RETURN TO VFR BY MID- TO LATE-AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED. THEREAFTER A BANK OF CIRRUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT, MEANING SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. BEFORE DAWN, CIRRUS WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO PULL SOUTH...RESULTING IN FEW/SKC CONDITIONS
BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS MUCH TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN
THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A STEADY SW WIND WITH LOW-END GUSTS
UP TO 20MPH THIS AFTERNOON, AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT/MPR
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