511
FXUS62 KGSP 101829
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A BIT WARMER FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER TODAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
ON MONDAY. RELATIVELY LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM,
AND SEVERE RISK REMAINS MINIMAL.
2. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER TODAY, BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. RELATIVELY LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM, AND SEVERE RISK REMAINS MINIMAL.
IT'S A BEAUTIFUL SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA, AS CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL BENEATH WEAKLY-CAPPED AND ILL-DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY FLAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH NO GOOD SYNOPTIC
FORCING TO BREAK THE CAP. LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SPARSE AFTERNOON
CU IS EXPECTED TODAY, THEN, WITH NO MENTIONABLE POP ANYWHERE IN
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DEPICTS
A SHALLOW DRY LAYER AT AROUND 700MB OR A LITTLE LOWER, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL TO MIX INTO THAT LAYER AND BRING LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES OF FALLING INTO CRITICAL RH
TERRITORY LOOK FAIRLY LOW IN THE 12Z HREF, WHICH BARELY EEKS OUT
A 30% CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON RH BELOW 30%, WHILE THE 06Z REFS IS
SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH WITH MIXING AND SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD 25-30%
RH ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. THE REFS SOLUTION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED
A WORST-CASE SCENARIO GIVEN ITS MEMBERSHIP BROADLY DEPICTS WEAKER
CAPPING AND STRONGER WINDS IN THE INVERSION LAYER THAN MOST OF
THE OTHER ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE Z500 FEATURES WILL PHASE TOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COALESCE INTO A SINGLE DEFINED TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, AND THEN VIGOROUSLY PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE AGREES WELL ON THE PLACEMENT OF A
POSITIVELY-TILTED AND DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA INTO THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY, WITH A
COOLER, POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS SLIPPING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.
THE CAMS ARE NOT IMPRESSED WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. GIVEN THE TIMING - WITH BOTH THE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, AND THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION ITSELF BOTH
CROSSING THE AREA NEAR THE DIURNAL MINIMUM - ENSEMBLES DEPICT FAIRLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY, WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO FEATURING
A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. EVEN THEN,
THE PROBABILITY OF >500 J/KG SBCAPE IS VERY LIMITED. ENSEMBLES
FEATURING A FASTER FROPA DEPICT AN EVEN BLEAKER SCENARIO FOR
CONVECTION, WITH LESS DESTABILIZATION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND RECENT
RAP CYCLES DEPICT A DEVELOPING AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MOVING
FROM THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS PROVIDING SOME MARGINALLY-BETTER
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTIVE INTIATION THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STILL THINK THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL, HOWEVER, GIVEN
SUCH A FEEBLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. SOME CONVECTIVE RAIN
RATES COULD NONETHELESS DEVELOP WITHIN ANY AREAS WHERE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS VARIOUSLY FEATURED IN FORECAST PROFILES,
BUT EVEN THEN, QPF RESPONSE COMES TO A PALTRY 0.1-0.15" FOR MOST
OF THE AREA, BARELY A DROP IN THE BUCKET AGAINST A REMAINING 3-7"
OF RAINFALL DEFICIT ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
BROAD UPPER TROFING WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WITH
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF GETTING REINFORCED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC, AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AS
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
COULD PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS AND/OR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL (IE, <
THAN 0.1 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS). DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH THE SFC HIGH MIGRATING OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING SLY RETURN FLOW TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE REGION AND HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIVES
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MOST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA IS
SKC, THOUGH ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, THERE WAS EVIDENCE OF A SHALLOW,
SPARSE CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-85. A STEADY N/NE
WIND PRESENTLY IN PLACE WILL GRADUALLY TOGGLE OVER TO THE SSW OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE SSW BY 18-19Z.
CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, AND BY DAYBREAK MONDAY, MORE EXTENSIVE
MID- LEVEL (STILL VFR) CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM. A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS, AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER, WILL CROSS THE AREA
FROM MID- MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, WITH A LEAST VC WEATHER
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT GUIDANCE CURRENTLY DEPICTS A QUICK
RETURN TO VFR IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK: DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A CLIPPER- TYPE LOW MAY CROSS TO OUR NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY, BUT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAINFALL WILL BE PALTRY WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND
IT'S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT/MPR
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