567
FXUS62 KGSP 102357
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
757 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY WEATHER TONIGHT, BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. RELATIVELY LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM,
AND SEVERE RISK REMAINS MINIMAL.
2. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER TONIGHT, BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
ON MONDAY. RELATIVELY LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM,
AND SEVERE RISK REMAINS MINIMAL.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE Z500 FEATURES WILL PHASE TOGETHER
THIS EVENING AND COALESCE INTO A SINGLE DEFINED TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, AND THEN VIGOROUSLY PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE AGREES WELL ON THE PLACEMENT OF A
POSITIVELY-TILTED AND DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA INTO THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z
MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY, WITH A COOLER, POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS SLIPPING INTO THE AREA
BY MONDAY NIGHT.
THE CAMS ARE NOT IMPRESSED WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. GIVEN THE TIMING - WITH BOTH THE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, AND THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION ITSELF BOTH
CROSSING THE AREA NEAR THE DIURNAL MINIMUM - ENSEMBLES DEPICT FAIRLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY, WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO FEATURING
A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING. EVEN THEN,
THE PROBABILITY OF >500 J/KG SBCAPE IS VERY LIMITED. ENSEMBLES
FEATURING A FASTER FROPA DEPICT AN EVEN BLEAKER SCENARIO FOR
CONVECTION, WITH LESS DESTABILIZATION. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND RECENT
RAP CYCLES DEPICT A DEVELOPING AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MOVING
FROM THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS PROVIDING SOME MARGINALLY-BETTER
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTIVE INTIATION THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STILL THINK THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL, HOWEVER, GIVEN
SUCH A FEEBLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. SOME CONVECTIVE RAIN
RATES COULD NONETHELESS DEVELOP WITHIN ANY AREAS WHERE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS VARIOUSLY FEATURED IN FORECAST PROFILES,
BUT EVEN THEN, QPF RESPONSE COMES TO A PALTRY 0.1-0.15" FOR MOST
OF THE AREA, BARELY A DROP IN THE BUCKET AGAINST A REMAINING 3-7"
OF RAINFALL DEFICIT ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
BROAD UPPER TROFING WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WITH
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF GETTING REINFORCED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AT THE SFC, AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AS
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
COULD PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS AND/OR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY OVER
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL (IE, <
THAN 0.1 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS). DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH THE SFC HIGH MIGRATING OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING SLY RETURN FLOW TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE REGION AND HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ONCE THE
REMAINING HIGH BASED STRATOCU DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WIND SHOULD
GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OUTSIDE THE MTNS FOR THE MOST PART. THE SITUATION
CHANGES ON MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE STILL LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO
CONFIDENCE IN ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IS RELATIVELY LOW AS CLOUD
BASES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY PREDOMINANTLY VFR. PREFER TO LIMIT THE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS TO A PROB30 AS THE FRONT
MOVES THRU, AND WE WILL REVISIT THE CEILING FCST TONIGHT. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES THRU, WIND SHOULD SHIFT TO N TO NE IN THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON AND WILL PROBABLY HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS.
OUTLOOK: AFTER THE FRONT, DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER- TYPE LOW MAY CROSS TO OUR NORTH LATE
WEDNESDAY, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAINFALL WILL BE PALTRY WITH
THIS SYSTEM, AND IT'S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL DEVELOP.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT/MPR/PM
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