520
FXUS62 KGSP 110508
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
108 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVELY LITTLE RAIN
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND SEVERE RISK REMAINS MINIMAL.
2. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVELY LITTLE RAIN
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND SEVERE RISK REMAINS MINIMAL.
A BROAD, POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY,
PROVIDING SOME LIFT FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIP. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SLIP THRU FROM THE NORTH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, LIKELY REACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA BY PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTN. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
NOT ADVECTING MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. THERE IS LESS
THAN A 30% CHANCE OF SBCAPE >500 J/KG PER THE HREF AND NBM PROBS. SO
WHILE THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE VAST MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WILL BE JUST SHOWERS. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.
AND QPF CONTINUES TO LOOK PALTRY, WITH 20% OR LESS CHANCE OF 0.25"
OF RAINFALL TODAY, HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES IN
THE CWFA. THE 00Z CAMS ARE COMING IN SHOWING SHOWERS ENTERING THE
NC MOUNTAINS FROM TN EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
POPPING UP NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE PIEDMONT THRU THE AFTN. NOTHING LOOKS ORGANIZED, AND
QPF IS SOMEWHAT SPOTTY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASING N TO NE WIND. SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF AND/OR EXIT TO OUR EAST BY AROUND SUNSET, WITH
CLOUDS LINGERING THRU THE EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT, ALLOWING MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE,
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL
NEXT WEEKEND.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT
THRU THE CWFA. THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING A BAND OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE BOUNDARY UPSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TAKING
THAT ACTIVITY INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTN. THERE HAS BEEN
A TREND IN THE GUIDANCE TOWARD A THIN PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS NOSING
NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT TRACK EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. AS A RESULT, THE NBM POPS
HAVE TRENDED UP A BIT ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR. CAPE STILL LOOKS
LIMITED, WITH LREF PROBS STILL SHOWING ONLY A 30-40% CHANCE OF >500
J/KG OF SBCAPE ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE. BUT BULK
SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 50-60 KT, SO IF INSTABILITY TRENDS UP,
THERE MAY BE A NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS TO THE EAST, MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD
A LARGE CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW MAY HELP KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR A COUPLE DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THEN THE LOW DEPARTS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL
WARM ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY APPROACHING
90 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE REGION. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AND ONLY PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN CARRIED FOR
NOW. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND LIMITED TO NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS ALSO REMAINING VFR. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH WITH GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: AFTER THE FRONT, DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW MAY CROSS TO OUR NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY,
BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAINFALL WILL BE PALTRY WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND
IT'S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/TW
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