526
FXUS62 KGSP 121027
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
627 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY. DRY AND BRIEFLY COOLER THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY. DRY AND BRIEFLY COOLER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY
WITH ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA INTO FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A
COOL AND DRY PATTERN FOLLOWING YESTERDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. BY
WEDNESDAY, A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO
TRANSITION FROM A POSITIVE TILT TO NEUTRAL. DESPITE SUFFICIENT
FORCING FOR ASCENT, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED AS
THE POOR TROUGH ORIENTATION WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF OR ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NONETHELESS, A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE POOLING
SHOULD RESIDE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING, BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. UNFORTUNATELY,
ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE AND WON'T HELP TO NOTICEABLY ALLEVIATE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THEREAFTER, UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND GRADUALLY
FLATTENS BY THE WEEKEND WITH RISING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL FOSTER A
RETURN TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE WEEKEND. A DEEP WESTERN TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO DIG OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME MAY SEND A COUPLE
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE
AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SATELLITE IMAGERY AND METARS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CLOUDS AT VARIOUS LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA AT TIME OF 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE. AN AREA OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO BANK UP AGAINST
THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT AND HAVE KEPT AN MVFR CIG AT KAVL, WHICH MAY
LINGER THRU MID-MORNING. MEANWHILE, PATCHY FOG AND LIFR STRATUS HAS
FORMED ACROSS THE NW NC PIEDMONT, AFFECTING KHKY. GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWS LITTLE POTENTIAL THAT FOG WILL FORM AT KCLT. AND FINALLY,
A VFR-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK PERSISTS ACROSS THE UPSTATE. ALL OF
THIS UNDER A CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL,
THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, LEAVING
MAINLY A FEW CIRRUS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FEW-SCT CU ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THRU THE AFTN. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NE TO ENE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THRU ABOUT MIDDAY, THEN TOGGLE TO SE AND REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
CLIPPER-TYPE LOW MAY CROSS TO OUR NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY, BUT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAINFALL WILL BE PALTRY WITH THIS SYSTEM,
AND IT'S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, VFR AND QUIET WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/TW
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