721
FXUS62 KGSP 131050
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
UPDATED THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM, THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARM AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM, THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARM AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CHICAGO TO CENTRAL MISSOURI.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEUTRAL
TILT AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MODEST, BUT THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS
RATHER DRY WITH PWATS 1" OR LESS. THIS WILL LEAVE THE SYSTEM AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE TROUGH ORIENTATION NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT. NONETHELESS, A BAND OF MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FAST MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
A COUPLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST TENNESSEE. THIS LINE WILL
ENTER THE MOUNTAINS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS, MAY BE RATHER LIMITED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE
RAINFALL AREN'T EXPECTED TO SEE ANY APPRECIABLE VALUES THAT WOULD
EASE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, UNFORTUNATELY.
THEREAFTER, A TALL UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS WHERE IT WILL FLATTEN
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT RISING HEIGHTS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AT THE SAME TIME, A DEEP WESTERN TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BROAD DOWNSTREAM
SOUTHWEST FLOW DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS. EVENTUALLY,
THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHILE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS LIFT
OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MAJORITY OF
ANY QPF RESPONSE REMAINS DISPLACED OFF TO OUR WEST AND NORTH, BUT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A NARROW, BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS INTO THE MOUNTAINS,
AND POSSIBLY SURVIVING INTO THE NC PIEDMONT LATE AFTN THRU THIS
EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON MUCH, IF ANY IMPACTS, THESE MAY
HAVE ON KAVL, KHKY, AND KCLT. BUT HIGH-RES MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING, AND PROB30 GROUPS FOR SHRA LINES UP WITH
THAT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THRU THE MORNING, THEN PICK
UP OUT OF THE SW WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BECOME MARGINALLY GUSTY
IN THE UPSTATE. WINDS WILL TOGGLE TO W, THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING, BECOMING GUSTY AT KAVL DUE TO CHANNELED UP-VALLEY
FLOW. BREEZY N/NW WINDS EXPECTED AT KCLT STARTING LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND,
BUT CONFIDENCE ON A RETURN TO ANY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES
REMAINS LOW.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
ARK/TW
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