026
FXUS62 KGSP 302346
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
746 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
UPDATED POP TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST CAM GUIDANCE.
MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE
AREA OR DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY.
2. DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER AFTER TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA OR DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONT OR
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT, OVERALL DRIER AND
COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY. THAT SAID, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD
TO LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
OF THE CWA, MAKING WAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-35%)OF PRECIPITATION.
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BY
MONDAY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER AFTER TUESDAY
WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
ONCE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT, THE GENERAL
PATTERN LOOKS TO KEEP THE AREA IN A DRIER PATTERN FOR THE MAJORITY
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FROM THE NORTH AND SPREADS SOUTHWARD, SHUNTING THE MAJORITY
OF RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A SPIN UP OF A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS TOWARD MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THE
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE AND IT WOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT TO
THIS AREA. THIS WILL BE MONITORED, MAINLY FOR RAIN CONCERNS EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD HIGH PRESSURE WEAKEN, IT COULD ALLOW FOR THIS
AREA TO SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA AND
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES. IF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STEADY, IT WOULD
SHUNT RAIN CHANCES. BUT EITHER WAY, NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING
IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOLER AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA/DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. WINDS TURN NE, N AT KAVL, THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING. MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SC
SITES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVE IN.
SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE NC SITES, BUT THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS THEN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SC SITES WITH LOWER VFR CIGS AND THE NC SITES. NE
SPEEDS TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS TURN S AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. A DRIER PATTERN SHOULD RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/RWH
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