943
FXUS62 KGSP 310649
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR TUE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COOLER AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE, WHILE A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY.
2. COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MID-WEEK, WITH
A WARMING TREND EXPECTED BEGINNING THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOLER AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE, WHILE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WHILE E/NE FLOW IS STRENGTHENING
IN RESPONSE TO AN INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE. STILL...ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SAVANNAH VALLEY, WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING DUE TO SLOW CELL MOVEMENT
AND BACK-BUILDING OF SMALL CELL CLUSTERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO STEADILY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE ENE FLOW WILL STEADILY PUSH DEEPER DRY AIR INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING, AND MUCH OF THE CWA WILL SEE CONDITIONS FREE
OF PRECIP TROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND
THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA, WHERE THE DRY
AIR WILL NOT BE AS DEEP, AND SOME INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED
(MAINLY IN THE AREA AROUND THEW SMOKIES.) EVEN IN THESE AREAS,
POPS ARE ONLY IN THE 20-40% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY
AND MEAN CLOUD-LAYER WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS WILL LIMIT ANY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL, BUT ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN IS STILL
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
FROM THE FOOTHILLS/BLUE RIDGE INTO THE SAVANNAH VALLEY, WHERE CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE PERSISTENT. DEEPER DRY AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL, WHILE
HIGHS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING VALLEYS BORDERING TN
(DISPLACED FROM THE NE FLOW) MAY SEE ABOVE-NORMAL MAX TEMPS.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF HEIGHT/LOW LEVEL PRESSURE FALLS IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE TN/OH VALLEY TONIGHT, WEAKENING
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ALLOWING FLOW TO TURN TO THE SSW ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE CWA TO ALLOW POPS TO RAMP UP TO THE SOLID CHANCE-TO-LIKELY
RANGE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG WITH A LOW END FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE.
THE NEXT ROUND OF (MORE SUBSTANTIAL) HEIGHT FALLS FOR THE REGION IS
SLATED FOR MONDAY, WHEN A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA
MON AFTERNOON, WITH POPS MOSTLY IN THE 50-60% RANGE ADVERTISED. WITH
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS, MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT A RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH EXPECTED MODEST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE THREAT TO THE MARGINAL END OF
THE SPECTRUM. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MID-WEEK,
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED BEGINNING THURSDAY. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE UNDER ANOMALOUSLY LOW
HEIGHTS. DESPITE THIS, GUIDANCE IS ARRIVING AT MORE OF A CONSENSUS
THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUE AFTERNOON AS COLD TROUGH
ALOFT PASSES OVER THE REGION. POPS MOSTLY IN THE 30-40% RANGE ARE
ADVERTISED DURING THIS TIME. DRY CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS GENERAL SURFACE RIDGING
PERSISTS WITH MODEST-AT-MOST MOISTURE RECOVERY ANTICIPATED. TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT BEFORE RECOVERING TO NEAR-NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THE STEADY
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPS FORECAST BY NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT
ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES...VCSH AT KGMU AND
KAND SHOULD COVER IT. OTHERWISE, INCREASING ENE SURFACE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN DRIER
AIR FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT KCLT AND KHKY THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOSER TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE (I.E.,
UPSTATE SC), MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK,
AND THIS IS HANDLED WITH A TEMPO PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...BECOMING
CATEGORICAL AROUND SUNRISE AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING. AT
KAVL, A WET GROUND IS RESULTING IN SOME CONCERN THAT FOG/LOW
STRATUS COULD DEVELOP THERE BY DAYBREAK, AS THE DRIER AIR MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO FILTER INTO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE OPTED FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME BEING. HAVING SAID THAT, CAN'T RULE OUT
IFR (OR LOWER) CONDITIONS AT KAVL, OR THE UPSTATE TERMINALS FOR
THAT MATTER. THIS POTENTIAL IS HANDLED WITH SCT IFR CLOUD LAYERS
WITHIN TEMPOS. WHILE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED AT THE
WESTERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THE
LOWER END OF VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY AT KCLT AND THE UPSTATE TERMINALS
BY AROUND DAYBREAK, THEN STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...POSSIBLY BECOMING LIGHT ESE DURING THE AFTERNOON, THEN
LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL MAKE YET ANOTHER
RETURN INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH PROB30S
FOR SHRA AND LOWERING CIGS ENTERING THE FORECASTS (EXCEPT AT KHKY)
DURING SUNDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY, BUT THIS IS MORE
UNCERTAIN. A DRIER PATTERN SHOULD SET UP BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page