255
FXUS62 KGSP 022317
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
717 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
ADJUSTED POP TRENDS THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR AND LATEST GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
2. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE OF AREAS OF WEAKENING CONVECTION WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
EARLY THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES ARE BETTER OVER NC WITH THE
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPSTATE AND
NE GA. CLEARING AND DRYING CONDITIONS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WITH A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, THE WEATHER CONDITIONS FLIP BACK TO A QUIET
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. HEIGHT RISES WITH A RIDGE
SLIDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AMPLIFYING OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, SHUNTS RAIN CHANCES. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CHANCES RETURNING DAY 7,
BUT THIS IS GENERALLY MODEL GUIDANCE CLINGING TO CLIMATOLOGY SO
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT THE GENERAL PATTERN,
THERE COULD BE A CHANCE. FOR NOW, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPS RETURNING TO WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CROSS KAVL AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS. ANOTHER AREA OF WEAKENING CONVECTION WILL MOVE OVER
KHKY BUT CHANCE OF RESTRICTION IS LOWER. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST OF KCLT THIS EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER
AT THE SC SITES EARLY THIS EVENING EITHER. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THIS CONVECTION WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
NE TO NW WIND, SE AT KAVL, BECOMES MORE SOLIDLY N TO NE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WIND GOES SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK: DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND VFR REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAILY MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW CLOUDS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
CP/RWH
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