271
FXUS62 KGSP 030652
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WITH LOCALLY
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. DRY WITH A WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. DRY WITH A WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE FRENCH BROAD BASIN
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG OBSERVED. WE ARE
NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY, AND FOG IS
LIKELY TO BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE TODAY, AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL START A
WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, AT WHICH POINT THE
RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL BY 5-7 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ANOMALOUSLY LOW DEWPOINTS
IN THE 40S WILL MAKE FOR A QUITE PLEASANT DAY...LIKELY ONE OF THE
FEW SUCH DAYS THAT WE WILL HAVE FOR THE NEXT THREE-ISH MONTHS. THE
AIR MASS STEADILY MODIFIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT WITH
THE PATTERN SUPPORTING RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE, DAILY MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE INSUFFICIENT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPS WARM TO CLIMO
BY FRIDAY AND PLATEAU THERE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS HEIGHTS
STEADILY FALL. BY SUNDAY, THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO MODIFY SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION TO FIRE,
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT (ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER WIDELY IN THE DETAILS) IN
HEIGHT FALLS AND PERHAPS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING INTO
PLAY OVER OUR REGION, WITH ENHANCED QPF RESPONSE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC AS MOISTURE PROFILES BECOME MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY
JUNE. POPS THEREFORE INCREASE A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO (50-60% IN THE
MOUNTAINS; 30-40% ELSEWHERE) FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION MON/TUE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: FOG/LOW STRATUS IS STEADILY EXPANDING
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH KAVL RECENTLY
DEVELOPING LIFR CONDITIONS. BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS, THIS IS SETTLING IN FOR THE NIGHT AND WILL FEATURE AT LEAST
TEMPO LIFR AT KAVL THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. THERE'S ALREADY BEEN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VLIFR, AND THAT MAY CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT. OTHER THAN KAVL, THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO SEE RESTRICTIONS
IS KHKY, ALTHOUGH IT'S HARDLY A SLAM DUNK. NEVERTHELESS, THERE'S
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE TEMPO MVFR VISBY THERE PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. A TEMPO FOR MVFR HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED AT KGSP...ALTHOUGH
ANY RESTRICTIONS THERE ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE DUE TO PATCHY GROUND
FOG. OTHERWISE, VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR MOSTLY A LIGHT NE DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS
MAY INCREASE TOWARD 10 KTS AT THE PIEDMONT SITES LATE THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK: DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND VFR REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND,
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAILY MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL
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