288
FXUS62 KGSP 031032
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
632 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. DRY WITH A WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. DRY WITH A WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE FRENCH BROAD BASIN
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG OBSERVED. WE ARE
NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY, AND FOG IS
LIKELY TO BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE TODAY, AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL START A
WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, AT WHICH POINT THE
RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL BY 5-7 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ANOMALOUSLY LOW DEWPOINTS
IN THE 40S WILL MAKE FOR A QUITE PLEASANT DAY...LIKELY ONE OF THE
FEW SUCH DAYS THAT WE WILL HAVE FOR THE NEXT THREE-ISH MONTHS. THE
AIR MASS STEADILY MODIFIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT WITH
THE PATTERN SUPPORTING RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE, DAILY MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE INSUFFICIENT
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPS WARM TO CLIMO
BY FRIDAY AND PLATEAU THERE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS HEIGHTS
STEADILY FALL. BY SUNDAY, THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO MODIFY SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION TO FIRE,
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT (ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER WIDELY IN THE DETAILS) IN
HEIGHT FALLS AND PERHAPS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING INTO
PLAY OVER OUR REGION, WITH ENHANCED QPF RESPONSE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC AS MOISTURE PROFILES BECOME MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY
JUNE. POPS THEREFORE INCREASE A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO (50-60% IN THE
MOUNTAINS; 30-40% ELSEWHERE) FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION MON/TUE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: FOG/LOW STRATUS IS WIDESPREAD IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THIS MORNING...WITH KAVL CURRENTLY REPORTING VLIFR
CONDITIONS. UNDER EARLY SUMMER SUN...THE FOG/STRATUS SHOULD NOT
LAST ANY LATER THAN 14Z AT KAVL. OTHERWISE, VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CAN'T RULE OUT MORE OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL,
BUT CONDITIONS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE LESS FAVORABLE...AND ANY
RESTRICTIONS THU MORNING WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS WEST
OF KAVL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY...BECOMING
NE AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING, THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE
AGAIN THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND VFR REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND,
EXCEPT FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAILY MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JDL
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