769
FXUS62 KGSP 191104
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
704 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH
PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS, FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
2. FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER ON SATURDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY, WE'LL SETTLE BACK INTO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN, WITH WARM, MUGGY CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT COULD SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS, FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE REMNANTS OF TS ARTHUR ARE CURRENTLY MAKING THEIR WAY OVER
OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WHAT'S LEFT OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO OUR CWA IN ITS WAKE. WE HAVE SEEN LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING
ACROSS OUR FCST AREA OVER THE PAST FEW HRS, AND IT'S LOOKING LIKE
WE PROBABLY WON'T SEE ANY MORE THE REST OF THE MORNING OWING TO
A LACK OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS SUCH, SPC HAS
REMOVED THEIR DAY 1 SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK AREAS FROM OUR CWA.
AS FOR ANY LINGERING FLASH FLOOD THREAT, THE 1.5 TO 2"+ PWATS ARE
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF OUR NON-MTN ZONES THANKS TO LOW-LVL
SWLY FLOW PULLING IN DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS. SO FAR HOWEVER, ONLY OUR NE GEORGIA AND WESTERN UPSTATE ZONES
HAVE RECEIVED QPF AMOUNTS THAT APPROACHED OUR EXPECTATIONS. THE
REST OF OUR FCST AREA HAS GENERALLY RECEIVED LESS THAN AN INCH OF
PRECIP THUS FAR. ALTHOUGH IT'S STILL RAINING ACROSS MOST OF OUR
NON-MTNS ZONES, IT'S LOOKING LIKE WE'LL GET SIGNIFICANTLY LESS QPF
OVER MOST OF OUR AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. OVERALL, THE HIGHER
RAIN RATES HAVE REMAINED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF
THIS SYSTEM. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA
BY MID-MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER ON
SATURDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY, WE'LL SETTLE BACK INTO
A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN, WITH WARM, MUGGY CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY
ONWARD.
BY SATURDAY, A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR FCST AREA DRY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
KEEPING ANY CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A
SERIES OF WEAK MID/UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY SEVERE
RISK TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY, WITH ONLY
TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED.
BY MID-WEEK, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS UPPER
TROFING DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS OUR AREA
IN RESPONSE. THERE'S STILL NOT MUCH ENSEMBLE CONSISTENCY WRT ANY
SPECIFIC IMPULSES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT THE PATTERN
MAY PRODUCE A SHORTWAVE OR TWO THAT MOVES OVER OUR AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK, POSSIBLY INCREASING OUR SEVERE CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL THRU MOST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE NOW MOVED EAST
OF OUR FCST AREA OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. ANY CIG RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE PERIOD AS FLOW
TURNS NWLY/DOWNSLOPE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA
AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AT MOST TERMINALS BY 12 TO 14Z,
WITH LOWER CIGS HANGING ON A BIT LONGER AT KCLT. THE REST OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE VFR AND MOSTLY DRY. A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDER-
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE SC
UPSTATE, BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. OUTSIDE THE MTNS, WINDS WILL TURN W AND THEN NW IN THE WAKE
OF THE SFC LOW THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. THEY WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
MORE NLY LATER THIS EVENING. AT KAVL, WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
NW BY MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THRU
EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN EACH DAY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT
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