750
FXUS62 KGSP 191812
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-85 FROM ROUGHLY 5 PM TO 9 PM. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LOOK BEST ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AND THE
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT (MAINLY SOUTH OF CHARLOTTE) PER THE
12Z CAMS AND LATEST NBM. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED SUB-SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AS THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS 1,000-2,000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 1,000 J/KG OF
DCAPE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE GSP
CWA THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL
AS THE DIMINISHING OF NW WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. DRY
WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE 00Z
EURO SHOWS DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNING ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST NBM APPEARS TO BE IN
LINE WITH THE EURO, WITH CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES. CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY POPS IS LOW AS REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE GSP
CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON WHERE EXACTLY THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
AS WELL BUT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (<45
MPH). A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT
FORT HE REST OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTS
FROM 18-22 KTS WILL CONTINUE AT KAVL THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. A FEW SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 ACROSS THE EASTERN SC
UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AT KCLT,
KGSP, AND KGMU AS THE BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF
THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NW AT KAVL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS RETURNING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WIND DIRECTION
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL START OUT W/WNW THIS AFTERNOON, TOGGLING
MORE N THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY WINDS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY TURN S/SW BUT KCLT COULD SEE WSW WINDS.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY, BUT CHANCES LOOK BETTER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR
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