147
FXUS62 KGSP 192346
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
746 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BEFORE
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING, WITH ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SC PIEDMONT SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING, AS DRIER/STABLE AIR OVERTAKES THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE 00Z EURO SHOWS DIURNAL CONVECTION
RETURNING ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LATEST NBM APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE EURO, WITH
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY
POPS IS LOW AS REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.
BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE GSP
CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON WHERE EXACTLY THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
AS WELL BUT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (<45
MPH). A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY
FILTERING THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS
EVENING, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT,
BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS WEST AND
NORTH OF KAVL, AND VFR IS FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS BECOME LIGHT BY LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE,
GENERALLY LIGHT NW OR LIGHT/VRBL WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT,
WITH DIRECTIONS COMING AROUND TO THE SW SAT AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY, BUT CHANCES LOOK BETTER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JDL
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