770
FXUS62 KGSP 200522
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
122 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BEFORE
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING, WITH ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SC PIEDMONT SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING, AS DRIER/STABLE AIR OVERTAKES THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE 00Z EURO SHOWS DIURNAL CONVECTION
RETURNING ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LATEST NBM APPEARS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE EURO, WITH
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. CONFIDENCE ON SUNDAY
POPS IS LOW AS REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.
BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE GSP
CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON WHERE EXACTLY THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY
AS WELL BUT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (<45
MPH). A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE 06 TAF PERIOD. RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE MTN VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS WEST OF
KAVL. WINDS WILL GO FROM WEAK AND NLY TO LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM
OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE THE MTNS, THEY WILL EVENTUALLY SWING AROUND
TO W/SW SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SPEEDS AROUND 5 KTS. AT
KAVL, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM THRU THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST EARLY
SUNDAY. SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
RETURN ON SUNDAY, BUT CHANCES LOOK MORE FAVORABLE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/JDL/JPT
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