543
FXUS62 KGSP 201044
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY SUNDAY. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA
THIS MORNING, ALLOWING DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR TO SPREAD OVER THE
CWA IN TANDEM. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THRU MOST OF THE
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AND FAR NE
GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORE THAN LIKELY, MOST OF
THIS AREA WILL REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE JUNE, WITH
VALUES WARMING TO NEAR-NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THRU OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO OUR FCST AREA IN
ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY. SCT TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY MONDAY AFTN/EVENING OVER OUR AREA, AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU, HOWEVER
WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED YET BY SPC. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THEY COULD CERTAINLY BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
OBJECTS. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE 12 TAF PERIOD. RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL
LINGER OVER OUR AREA TODAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMS
OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED
IN THE USUAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVER THE PAST FEW HRS, BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH KAVL. OUTSIDE THE MTNS, LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY SWING AROUND TO W/SW THIS AFTN
WITH LIGHT SPEEDS AROUND 5 KTS. AT KAVL, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VRB TO CALM THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DRY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST EARLY
SUNDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY RETURN ON SUNDAY, BUT CHANCES LOOK MUCH BETTER ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
JPT
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