693
FXUS62 KGSP 201806
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NBM CONTINUES TRENDING LOWER ON POPS FOR SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
HAZARD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING LOWER HUMIDITY AND DRY
CONDITIONS AROUND. THE NBM CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS MATCHES THE LATEST CAM TRENDS SHOWING
DRY CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER THE GSP CWA. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY
WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. WARMER AND
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURN SUNDAY TO KICK OFF THE FIRST OFFICIAL DAY
OF SUMMER AS LOW-LEVEL SW'LY FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUT OF THE W/NW ON MONDAY BEFORE TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF STORMS LOOKS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE 12Z
CAMS THAT ALREADY GO OUT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WITH GUIDANCE
DEPICTING 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND 1,500-2,000 J/KG OF SBCAPE DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS,
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE DAY 3 SPC OUTLOOK
SHOWING A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE GSP CWA APPEARS WARRANTED.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. TIMING FOR SEVERE ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE FROM ROUGHLY 2 PM
TO 10 PM PER THE 12Z NAMNEST BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE
REST OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE BEGINS TO FULLY CAPTURE THE EVENT.
BREEZY SW WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY,
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH (WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA).
A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WSW/SW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE WINDS AT KAVL REMAIN VRB. WINDS WILL GO CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB
THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE S/SW
BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVERHEAD
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY THINNING OVERNIGHT. THIN
CIRRUS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME CUMULUS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, RETURN AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THE REST OF THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page