908
FXUS62 KGSP 202318
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
718 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
HAZARD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING LOWER HUMIDITY AND DRY
CONDITIONS AROUND. THE NBM CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS MATCHES THE LATEST CAM TRENDS SHOWING
DRY CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER THE GSP CWA. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY
WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. WARMER AND
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURN SUNDAY TO KICK OFF THE FIRST OFFICIAL DAY
OF SUMMER AS LOW-LEVEL SW'LY FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUT OF THE W/NW ON MONDAY BEFORE TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF STORMS LOOKS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE 12Z
CAMS THAT ALREADY GO OUT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WITH GUIDANCE
DEPICTING 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND 1,500-2,000 J/KG OF SBCAPE DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS,
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE DAY 3 SPC OUTLOOK
SHOWING A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE GSP CWA APPEARS WARRANTED.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. TIMING FOR SEVERE ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE FROM ROUGHLY 2 PM
TO 10 PM PER THE 12Z NAMNEST BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE
REST OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE BEGINS TO FULLY CAPTURE THE EVENT.
BREEZY SW WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY,
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH (WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA).
A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. FEW/SCT250 CLOUDS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY, BEFORE SOME SCATTERED CU
BUBBLES UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO VRB OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE SW AGAIN TOMORROW. CALM WINDS ARE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT KCLT. NO OTHER RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO RETURN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT THE REST OF THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/CP
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