373
FXUS62 KGSP 210504
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
104 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
HAZARD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING LOWER HUMIDITY AND DRY
CONDITIONS AROUND. THE NBM CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS MATCHES THE LATEST CAM TRENDS SHOWING
DRY CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER THE GSP CWA. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY
WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. WARMER AND
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURN SUNDAY TO KICK OFF THE FIRST OFFICIAL DAY
OF SUMMER AS LOW-LEVEL SW'LY FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUT OF THE W/NW ON MONDAY BEFORE TRACKING
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF STORMS LOOKS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PER THE 12Z
CAMS THAT ALREADY GO OUT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WITH GUIDANCE
DEPICTING 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND 1,500-2,000 J/KG OF SBCAPE DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS,
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE DAY 3 SPC OUTLOOK
SHOWING A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE GSP CWA APPEARS WARRANTED.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. TIMING FOR SEVERE ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE FROM ROUGHLY 2 PM
TO 10 PM PER THE 12Z NAMNEST BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE
REST OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE BEGINS TO FULLY CAPTURE THE EVENT.
BREEZY SW WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY,
RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH (WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA).
A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT
ALL SITES THRU THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECT FEW TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS
TO STREAM OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING. WE'LL LIKELY
SEE A FEW CUMULUS AND HIGH CIRRUS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA. THE USUAL FOG-PRONE MTN VALLEYS WILL PROBABLY SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING, BUT IT'S NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH KAVL. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM THRU THE
MORNING AND EVENTUALLY PICK UP FROM THE S/SW AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
AR/CP/JPT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page